Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [26-November 2023]

 [Fundamental viewpoint]

Stock indices rose for the week last week in the U.S. market as the prevailing view was that the Fed's interest rate hike phase was over.

Weekly change NY Dow: +1.27% NASDAQ: +0.89% S&P 500: +1.00%.

                                       

On the other hand, medium- to long-term risks include concerns about the prolonged conflict in Ukraine, energy costs, financial instability and global economic slowdown due to rising interest rates, and the collapse of the real estate bubble and economic slowdown in China. This also raises concerns about the arrival of stagflation. In addition, geopolitical risks in East Asia and the Middle East continue to require attention.

The difference in the yield spread between the Japanese and U.S. markets is 5.08 points undervalued in the Japanese market when the revised OECD nominal GDP forecast for 2024 is taken into account. The undervaluation is due to the difference between the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 20.5 and the Nikkei 225's P/E ratio of 14.9, the difference between the U.S. and Japanese interest rates, and the difference in GDP growth rates.
This means that if the difference in GDP growth between Japan and the U.S. in 2022 is 5.08 points larger than the OECD forecast (Japan is revised downward or the U.S. is revised upward), or if the current year's forecast PER of the Nikkei Index stocks is around 61.7, or if the Nikkei Index is around 138,980 yen, the Nikkei Index will be at the same level as the current Nikkei Index price. 105,350 yen,

 

From a fundamental perspective, the Japanese market can be said to be about 105,350 yen less attractive than the U.S. market. Last week, the weakness in the Japanese market diminished somewhat.

 

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

①    Rising US market

②　Increase in profit forecast for the current fiscal year above the previous year's level

③ Further depreciation of the yen due to the widening interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S.

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2023 GDP estimate (now +3.5%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

 

Looking at recent movements

①    Last week's NYDow's weekly chart was a positive line. The daily chart is above the 200-day line and the clouds of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. The NASDAQ has a positive weekly line. The daily price is above the 200-day line and the Ichimoku cloud. This week, we will focus on whether or not the NY Dow can keep above the 25-day line.

②    As a result of the announcement of quarterly financial results, the forecasted ROE of the Nikkei 225 indexes came in at +8.8%, an improvement of 0.3 percentage points from three months ago. Profit growth was +9.2%, an improvement of +6.9 percentage points from three months ago.

③    U.S. long-term interest rates rose and the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan widened from 3.69 to 3.71, but the dollar moved slightly higher against the yen in the range of ¥149 to ¥147. The dollar index fell -0.39% for the week.

④    The OECD's nominal GDP growth rate for Japan and the U.S. in 2024 is expected to be +2.96% for Japan and +3.40% for the U.S., so the Japanese market is 0.44 percentage points inferior in this aspect.

⑤    The third week of November was overbought; the fourth week of November was likely overbought, and overbought is expected this week. Of the five points last week,  ①, ②, and ⑤ were bullish. ①②③⑤ are expected to have an impact.

 

[Technical viewpoint]

From a technical perspective, the Japanese market is undervalued by 0.1 point in the medium to long term in terms of the difference in 200-day divergence from the NASDAQ (about 30 yen when converted to the Nikkei 225). On the other hand, the difference in the 200-day divergence from the NYDow is 4.6 points (about 1,550 yen in terms of the Nikkei average) overvalued in the medium to long term.

 

The strength of the Japanese market versus the NY Dow was extended during the week. The VIX, a measure of U.S. market volatility, declined to a weekly low of 12.5. The Nikkei VI fell to a weekly low of 16.9. Optimistic sentiment continued in both the U.S. and Japanese markets.

 

The Nikkei 225 is above the 9-day and the 25-day lines. This is a "green light" for the short-term trend.

The Nikkei 225 is above chimoku Kinko Chart's cloud, and the Nikkei 225's total divergence is +17.9%The divergence between the Nikkei 225 and the 200-day moving average was +9.1%. Since the three factor is positive, a "green signal" is lit for the medium-term trend.

 

In the U.S. market, the NYDow is above the 9-day line and the 25-day line and the 200-day line. It is above Ichimoku Chart cloud.
The NASDAQ is above the 9-day line and the 25-day line and the 200-day line. It is above the Ichimoku Kinko's cloud.
This is a "green light" in the short term and a "green light" in the medium term.

 

[Outlook for this week]

Looking at the U.S. market from a fundamental perspective, concerns about a global economic slowdown due to the spread of the new coronavirus have receded, but risk factors include inflation and rising interest rates due to the Russia-Ukraine war and economic slowdown due to energy shortages and deteriorating political conditions in the EU, U.S.-China trade friction, financial market turmoil caused by the bursting of the Chinese real estate bubble and credit contraction, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East and East Asia.

 

Recent LIBOR rates have been on the rise, and we continue to be wary of a resurgence of financial instability.

 

Looking at the technical aspects, the U.S. market is in a medium-term up trend and a short-term up trend. The Japanese market is in a medium-term up trend, and the short-term is up trend.

 

Analysis of the foreign exchange market shows that the yen has been weakening since January 2023. This week, we expect the yen to be in the range of 150 to 148 yen.

 

This week in the U.S. markets, PCE prices, personal income and spending, and the ISM manufacturing PMI will be released, as well as speeches by Chairman Powell and Fed officials. In addition, the CB Consumer Confidence Index, revised Q3 GDP growth, new home sales, and Q3 corporate earnings will also be in focus. Globally, speeches by senior officials from the ECB and the Bank of Japan are scheduled. Also of interest will be Eurozone inflation and China's manufacturing and services PMIs.

 

Last week, the Nikkei 225 moved mostly within its expected range. The upside was about 40 yen above the assumed line and the downside was about 80 yen above the assumed line.

This week, the Nikkei 225 is expected to move between Bollinger Band +2σ (currently around 34230 yen) on the upside and Bollinger Band +1σ (currently around 33210 yen) on the downside.

 

This week will be influenced by comments from Fed officials and PCE prices. Volatility is trending lower in both the U.S. and Japanese markets, and the Nikkei 225 is expected to rise moderately.