[Present state recognition of fundamental]
Last week in the US market, uncertainty
about the future of Parliament passage of the Obama Care alternative and the
elimination of the Dodd-Frank Act, so selling power is dominant. Meanwhile, in
the medium to long term, there are fears of a slowdown in the global economy
due to the lack of creditworthiness of European banks and concerns about credit
contraction, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the
rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the stagnation of crude oil prices, and We
need continued attention to the geopolitical risk of the Middle East and
Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 0.92 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2018 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 18.1 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 16.0,and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2018 is 0.9% more than the OECD forecast (Japan is
downgraded downwards or the US is upwardly modified) against the current Nikkei
average price, Or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be
in equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 18.7(the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 22580 yen) By the way, the Japanese market is
cheap about 3320 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2018 GDP
estimate (now + 0.83%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was negative.
The daily bar is on the 200 day line, and it is on the cloud of the ichimoku table.
Nasdaq bar is on the 200-day line and the cloud of the ichimoku table. This
week we will be paying attention to housing related indicators, quarterly
financial results announcement, CB Consumer Confidence Index in March, Chicago
Purchasing Department Association Business Economy Index in March, I would like
to pay attention to whether NYDow can maintain above the clouds of ichimoku
table.
② The expected profit increase for the
Nikkei225 hires will be 8.0% with the announcement of the financial results along
with the announcement of the financial results for the October-December period,
and it gained 0.2 points worse, compared to 3 months ago. In addition, The
growth rate for the current business forecast is +7.2%, and it improved by 2.1
points compared to 3 months ago.
③ Long-term interest rates in the US has
risen, the interest rate differential between Japan and the US expanded from 2.43
to 2.35%, and the exchange rate moved from the 112 yen level to 110 yen level. This
week is estimated to be 112 yen range from 109 yen range.
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2018
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.8% in Japan and + 3.0% in the US, so
the Japanese market is worse by 2.2 points on this aspect.
⑤ The 3rd week of Mar was a over selling and
there is a high possibility that the 4th week of Mar is a over selling, , and
this week we are forecasting to over selling.
①,③ was bearish factor.
It seems that ①,③,⑤ will be affected this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical viewpoint of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 0.2 points
in the mid to long term (about 40 yen when calculating the Nikkei average) and
it is expensive. The ratio was shrunk 0.0 points.
The Nikkei average on the cloud of the
ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was + 8.7%, and the positive range shrunk
compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate was + 9.0%,
and the positive range shrunk compared to last week. Since the three elements
are positive, the "green light" is on for the medium term trend. The
Nikkei average is under the 25 day line and the 9th line, " red light " is on for short-term
trends.
In the US market NY Dow is on the 200 day
line but under the 25 day line and 9 day line. It is on the cloud of the
ichimoku table. Nasdaq lies on the 200 day but under the 25 day line and the 9
day line. It is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. In the short term " red
light " is on and in the medium term "green light" is on.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, falling
high-yield bond market, financial market turmoil due to UK's withdrawal from
the EU, global long-term interest rate trends decline,etc. Concern is backwards.
However, there are fears concerning the global economic slowdown due to the US
interest rate hikes, the creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, the
economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the sluggish growth of
US corporate earnings, geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as
risk factors It exists.
China's real estate prices are flat in big
cities, but the problem of bad loans in China such as excessive facilities has
not been resolved. If you rush up the process, it will lead to a short-term
market decline, and there is a concern that prolonged recession will prolong
the recession.
Also, the most recent LIBOR interest rate
has been updated for the past five years high and conscious of the possibility
of financial unrest.
On the other hand, as favorable material,
the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New
President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of
negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion
yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration
of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation, maintenance of
different dimensions of monetary easing measures such as negative interest
rates on policy interest rates by the ECB and purchase of government bonds of
EUR 60 billion each month.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is upward trend in the medium-term, and upward trend in the short term.
The Japanese market is upward trend in the medium-term, and upward trend in the
short term.
Analyzing the exchange market last week, Long-term
interest rates in the US decreased, the long-term interest rate gap between the
US and Japan has shrunk, so the exchange rate became a strong yen movement in
the week. From now on, we need to pay attention to technical indicators, US
market trends, foreign exchange movements and foreign investor's trends.
Last week's Nikkei average dropped greatly
down the expected range. The upper price about 210 yen lower the assumed line
and the lower price was about 400 yen lower the assumed line. This week's
Nikkei average is expected to move between upper price is 25 day moving average
line (the current price is around 19370 yen) and the lower price is Bollinger
band -2σ line (the current price is around 19030 yen ).
