[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, sales were
dominant due to the warning about a global economic slowdown due to the new
corona virus. In the medium to long term, there are fears of a slowdown in the
global economy due to New type pneumonia expansion , confusion of US politics, raise
rate by FRB, European political turmoil and the creditworthiness of European
banks and credit crunch concerns, the economic slowdown of emerging economies
such as China, and concern over the global economic slowdown due to trade war.
We need continued attention to the geopolitical risk of the Middle East ,
Korean Peninsula and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 2.07 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2020 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 19.3 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 14.3 and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2020 is 2.0% more than the OECD forecast (Japan
will downgrade or US will be revised upward) against the current Nikkei average
price, or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in
equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 20.4(the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 33280 yen) . In the medium to long term, the
Japanese market is low valued at about 9890 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2021 GDP
estimate (now +0.74%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was negative.
The daily bar is above the 200 day line, and it is above the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq weekly foot was negative. NASDAQ bar is above the 200-day line and
it is above the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying
attention to Housing related indicators, Quarterly financial results announcement
, February consumer confidence index, durable goods orders in January. I would
like to pay attention to whether NYDow can return above the 25th day line.
② The forecast ROE for Nikkei 225 stocks
for the current term is 7.8%, 0.3 points worse than the previous three months
due to the announcement of financial results for the April-June period. In
addition, the profit growth rate of the business forecast for the current term
is - 6.2%, 0.5 points worse than the
previous three months.
③ Although the long-term interest rate in
the United States has declined and the interest rate differential between the
United States and Japan has narrowed from 1.62% to 1.53%, the yen has weakened
from 109 yen to 112 yen.
④ The real GDP growth rate forecast for
2021 in Japan and the United States of OECD was announced, Japan is expected to
be + 0.74%, and the United States is expected to be + 1.98%.
⑤ The 2nd week of February is a over selling.
there is a high possibility that the 3rd week of February is a over selling,
and this week we are forecasting to over selling.
last week, ③ was a bullish factor but ① was a bearish
factor. It seems that ①,②,③,⑤ will be affected
this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical viewpoint of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 8.7
points lower than NASDAQ in the medium to long term. (It is about 2030 yen when
it is based on the Nikkei average) Proportions shrank compared to last week.
The Nikkei average is under the cloud of
the ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was +4.1%, and shrank to the positive
width compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate was
+5.4%, and shrank to the positive width compared to last week. Since the 2
elements ware positive, the "yellow signal" is lit in the medium term
trend. The Nikkei average is under the 25_day moving average line and the 9_day
moving average line, "red signal
" is lit for short-term trends.
In the US market NY Dow is above the 200_day
line but under the 25_day line and the 9_day line. It is above the cloud of
ichimoku table. NASDAQ is above the 200_day average line and the 25_day average
line but under the 9_day average line. It is above the cloud of the ichimoku
table. In the short term "yellow signal" is lit and in the medium
term " green signal" is lit.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as interest rate hikes in the United States, sluggish growth in
US corporate performance, financial market turmoil caused by credit slumps,
North Korea issues, falling crude oil prices and falling high yield bond
markets, global long-term interest rate decline trend are receding However, Spread
of pneumonia infection by new coronavirus, US-China trade friction, US
political uncertainty, lack of creditworthiness and political situation of EU
banks, global economic slowdown concern with trade war, geopolitical risk of
the Middle East and Ukraine Etc exist as a risk factor.
Real estate prices in China are flat in
large cities, but the problems of nonperforming loans in China as a whole such
as excessive facilities have not been resolved. If you hurry up the process, it
will lead to a short-term market drop, and if you delay proceeding, there is
concern that the economic recession will be prolonged.
Although the recent LIBOR interest rate has
been on a downward trend, it has been rising for the past five years, implying
that global bad debt continues to increase, and is aware of the possibility of
a resurgence of financial uncertainty.
On the other hand, the following points can
be pointed out as favorable materials. US interest rate cut expectations,
policy expectation of President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the
Bank of Japan, introduction of negative interest rate and purchase of ETF of 80
trillion yen · 6 trillion yen ETF Clarification of the duration of interest
rate manipulation and monetary easing and ECB deepens negative interest rate
and resumes quantitative easing.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is upward trend in the medium-term, and no trend in the short term. The
Japanese market is no trend in the medium-term, and downward trend in the short
term.
Analysis of the foreign exchange market
last week showed that while the long-term interest rate in the United States
fell and the long-term interest rate differential between the United States and
Japan narrowed, the yen depreciated weekly. This week is expected to be between
110 and 112 yen.
Last week, the Nikkei average was below the
expected range. The upside was about 110 yen below the assumed line, and the
downside was about 130 yen below the assumed line. For the Nikkei 225 this
week, the upside is expected to be on the 25th day (currently around 23,560
yen), and the downside is expected to be within the Bollinger Band-2σ
(currently around 22,890 yen).
