[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, expectations
for the progress of trade negotiations between the United States and China
continued, and buying became dominant. In the medium to long term, there are
fears of a slowdown in the global economy due to confusion of US politics, raise
rate by FRB, European political turmoil and the creditworthiness of European
banks and credit crunch concerns, the economic slowdown of emerging economies
such as China, and concern over the global economic slowdown due to trade war.
We need continued attention to the geopolitical risk of the Middle East ,
Korean Peninsula and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 3.32 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2020 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 16.6 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 12.3 and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2019 is 3.3% more than the OECD forecast (Japan
will downgrade or US will be revised upward) against the current Nikkei average
price, or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in
equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 20.9 (the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 36270 yen) . In the medium to long term, the
Japanese market is low valued at about 14840 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2020 GDP
estimate (now +0.68%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was positive.
The daily bar is above the 200 day line, and it is above the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq weekly foot was positive. NASDAQ bar is above the 200-day line but
above the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to
Housing related indicators, Quarterly financial results announcement , Consumer
Confidence Index in February, ISM Manufacturing Industry Index in February. I
would like to pay attention to whether NYDow can keep on the 25th day line.
② The expected increase in the Nikkei 225 brand
name is expected to be 9.3% with the announcement of settlement of accounts for
the October-December period, which is the same level as the 3 months ago. In
addition, the profit growth rate for the current business forecast is -3.7%, 1.9
points worse than three months ago.
③ Long-term interest rates in the US
declined, but the interest rate differential between Japan and the US expanded
from 2.69% to 2.70%, and the exchange rate was a move toward the depreciation
of the yen at the 110 yen level.
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2020
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.68% in Japan and + 2.13% in the US,
so the Japanese market is worse by 1.45 points on this aspect.
⑤ The 2nd week of February is a over selling. there is a high
possibility that the 3rd week of February
is a over selling, and this week we are forecasting to over selling.
last week ① was a bullish factor. It seems that ①,③,⑤ will be affected
this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical viewpoint of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 3.7
points lower than NASDAQ in the medium to long term. (It is about 790 yen when
it is based on the Nikkei average) Proportions have shrank compared to last week.
The Nikkei average is above the cloud of
the ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was +0.9%, and width changed to the
positive width compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation
rate was -2.9%, and the negative width shrank. Since the two elements are
negative, the "yellow signal" is lit in the medium term trend. The
Nikkei average is above the 25_day moving average line and the 9_day moving
average line, "green signal "
is lit for short-term trends.
In the US market NY Dow is above the 200_day
line and the 25_day line and the 9_day line. It is above the cloud of ichimoku
table. NASDAQ is above the 200_day average line and the 25_day average line and
the 9_day average line. It is above the cloud of the ichimoku table. In the
short term "green signal" is lit and in the medium term "green signal"
is lit.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as the US economic slowdown, Financial market turmoil
accompanying credit crunch, global long-term interest rate trends declined, Situation
of North Korea, falling high-yield bond market, etc. Concern is diminished.
However, there are fears concerning the global economic slowdown due to the US
interest rate hikes, sluggish crude oil prices uncertainty of US politics, the
creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, Concerns over the economic slowdown
of emerging economies such as China and the global economic slowdown due to
trade war, geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as risk factors It
exists.
Real estate prices in China are flat in
large cities, but the problems of nonperforming loans in China as a whole such
as excessive facilities have not been resolved. If you hurry up the process, it
will lead to a short-term market drop, and if you delay proceeding, there is
concern that the economic recession will be prolonged.
Also, the latest LIBOR interest rate is on
the upward trend, it continues to update the high price in the past five years,
which implies that global nonperforming debt continues to increase, and the
possibility of financial unrest is revealed .
On the other hand, as favorable material,
the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New
President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of
negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion
yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration
of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation. Negative
interest rates and purchase of government bonds are maintained for policy
interest rates by the ECB. However, The purchase of government bonds ended at
the end of 2018.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is upward trend in the medium-term, and upward trend in the short term.
The Japanese market is no trend in the medium-term, and upward trend in the
short term.
Analyzing the exchange market last week,
the long-term interest rate in the US declined but the long-term interest rate
gap between the US and Japan expanded, and the exchange rate was weaker yen trend
in the week. This week it is assumed from 110 yen range to 111 yen range.
Last week's Nikkei average was within the
expected range. The upper price is below the assumed line by about 120 yen, and
the lower price exceeds the supposed line by about 450 yen. This week's Nikkei
average is expected to move between the Bollinger band + 3σ (currently around
21,790 yen) and the lower price is Bollinger band + 1σ (around 21180 yen now).
