[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, concerns about
intensifying trade friction and the quarterly settlement contents affected the
selling and buying. In the medium to long term, there are fears of a slowdown
in the global economy due to confusion of US politics, raise rate by FRB, European
political turmoil and the creditworthiness of European banks and credit crunch
concerns, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, and concern
over the global economic slowdown due to trade war. We need continued attention
to the geopolitical risk of the Middle East , Korean Peninsula and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 2.96 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2019 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 17.7 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 13.6 and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2019 is 3.0% more than the OECD forecast (Japan
will downgrade or US will be revised upward) against the current Nikkei average
price, or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in
equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 22.9(the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 38100 yen) . Because it is so, the Japanese
market is cheap about 15380 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2019 GDP
estimate (now +1.21%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was positive.
The daily bar is above the 200 day line, and it is above the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq weekly foot was negative. NASDAQ bar is above the 200-day line and
above the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to
Housing related indicators, Quarterly financial results announcement , ISM
Manufacturing Industry Index in July, Employment Statistics in July. we would
like to pay attention to whether NYDow can keep to above the cloud of the ichimoku
table.
② The expected profit increase for the
Nikkei 225 hires will be +9.1% with the announcement of the 1st quarter
financial results. It has deteriorated by 0.2 points compared with 3 months ago.
In addition, the growth rate forecast for this term is -6.0%. It has
deteriorated by 25.5 points compared with 3 months ago
③ Long-term interest rates in the US rose,
but the difference in interest rates between Japan and the US has not expanded
from 2.86 to 2.86%, the exchange rate was a move from 111 yen range to 110 yen
range. This week is estimated to be the 110 yen level to the 112 yen level.
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2019
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 1.2% in Japan and + 2.8% in the US, so
the Japanese market is worse by 1.6 points on this aspect.
⑤ the 3rd week of July is a over buying. there
is a high possibility that the 4th week of July is a over buying, and this week
we are forecasting to over buying.
last week ① was a bullish factor but ③ was a bearish
factor. It seems that ①,②,③,⑤ will be affected
this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical point of view of the
Japanese market, the 200-day discrepancy rate with Nasdaq is 5.3 points in the
medium to long term (about 1200 yen when calculated by the Nikkei average),
which is less expensive. The difference has shrunk compared to last
week.
The Nikkei average above the cloud of the
ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was + 5.1%, and the positive range has
shrunk compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate
increased by + 1.8% and the positive width has shrunk. Since 3 elements are positive,
the "green light" is on for the medium term trend. The Nikkei average
is above the 25 day moving average line and the 9 day moving average line, "green light " is on for short-term
trends.
In the US market NY Dow under the 200 day
line and the 25 day line and the 9 day line. It is above the cloud of ichimoku
table. NASDAQ above the 200 day average line and the 25 day average line but
under the 9 day average line. It is above the cloud of the ichimoku table. In
the short term "yellow light" is on and in the medium term "green
light" is on.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, Financial
market turmoil accompanying credit crunch, global long-term interest rate
trends declined, Situation of North Korea, falling high-yield bond market, etc.
Concern is diminished. However, there are fears concerning the global economic
slowdown due to the US interest rate hikes, uncertainty of US politics, the
creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, Concerns over the economic slowdown
of emerging economies such as China and the global economic slowdown due to
trade war, geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as risk factors It
exists.
Real estate prices in China are flat in
large cities, but the problems of nonperforming loans in China as a whole such
as excessive facilities have not been resolved. If you hurry up the process, it
will lead to a short-term market drop, and if you delay proceeding, there is
concern that the economic recession will be prolonged.
It also implies that the latest LIBOR
interest rate has continued to update the highs for the past five years, and
that the global nonperforming debt continues to increase, and the possibility
of financial unrest is revealed.
On the other hand, as favorable material,
the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New
President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of
negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion
yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration
of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation. Negative
interest rates and purchase of government bonds are maintained for policy
interest rates by the ECB. However, the government bond purchase frame is
gradually reduced from April 2017 and is planned to end at the end of the year.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is upward trend in the medium-term, and no trend in the short term. The
Japanese market is upward trend in the medium-term, and upward trend in the short
term.
When analyzing the exchange market last
week, the long-term interest rate in the US rose but the long-term interest
rate gap between the US and Japan has not expanded , and the exchange rate was stronger
yen in the week. From now on, we need to pay attention to technical indicators,
US market trends, foreign exchange movements and foreign investor's trends.
Last week's Nikkei average moved within the
expected range. The upper price was lower than the assumed line by about 300
yen, and the lower price exceeded the assumed line by about 50 yen. This week's
Nikkei average is expected to move between the upper price near the the Bollinger
band +2σ (currently around 23010 yen) and the lower price near 25 day line (currently
around 22300 yen ).
