[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, selling was
dominant due to the impeachment of President Trump. In the medium to long term,
there are fears of a slowdown in the global economy due to confusion of US
politics, raise rate by FRB, European political turmoil and the
creditworthiness of European banks and credit crunch concerns, the economic
slowdown of emerging economies such as China, and concern over the global economic
slowdown due to trade war. We need continued attention to the geopolitical risk
of the Middle East , Korean Peninsula and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 2.75 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2020 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 18.1 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 12.5 and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2019 is 2.7% more than the OECD forecast (Japan
will downgrade or US will be revised upward) against the current Nikkei average
price, or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in
equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 19.0 (the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 33310 yen) . In the medium to long term, the
Japanese market is low valued at about 11430 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2020 GDP
estimate (now +0.68%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was negative.
The daily bar is above the 200 day line, and it is above the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq weekly foot was negative. NASDAQ bar is above the 200-day line and
it is under the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying
attention to Housing related indicators, Quarterly financial results
announcement , September ISM Manufacturing Business Index, September Employment
Statistics. I would like to pay attention to whether NYDow can keep above the
25th day line.
②The forecast ROE for Nikkei 225 stocks
for the current term is 8.8%, 0.1 points worse than the previous three months
due to the announcement of financial results for the April-June period. In
addition, the profit growth rate of the business forecast for the current term
is + 0.6%, 2.6 points worse than the
previous three months.
③The long-term interest rates in the
United States decreased, the interest rate differential between Japan and the
US expanded.1.94% to 1.93, but the currency exchange rate trended between ¥ 106
and ¥ 108. Last week was a weak yen.
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2020
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.61% in Japan and + 2.28% in the US,
so the Japanese market is worse by 1.67 points on this aspect.
⑤ The 3rd week of September is a over selling.
there is a high possibility that the 4th week of September is a over selling, and this week we
are forecasting to over selling.
last week, ① ware bearish factor. It seems that ①,②,③,⑤ will be affected this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical viewpoint of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 0.2
points higher than NASDAQ in the medium to long term. (It is about 40 yen when
it is based on the Nikkei average) Proportions change compared to last week.
The Nikkei average is above the cloud of
the ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was +8.9%, and shrank to the positive
width compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate was
+3.1%, and shrank to the positive width compared to last week. Since the tree
elements ware positive, the "green signal" is lit in the medium term
trend. The Nikkei average is above the 25_day moving average line but under the
9_day moving average line, "yellow signal
" is lit for short-term trends.
In the US market NY Dow is above the 200_day
line and the 25_day line but under the 9_day line. It is above the cloud of
ichimoku table. NASDAQ is above the 200_day average line but under the 25_day
average line and the 9_day average line. It is under the cloud of the ichimoku
table. In the short term "yellow signal" is lit and in the medium
term " yellow signal" is lit.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as interest rate hikes in the United States, sluggish growth in
US corporate performance, financial market turmoil caused by credit slumps,
North Korea issues, falling crude oil prices and falling high yield bond
markets, global long-term interest rate decline trend are receding However,
US-China trade friction, US political uncertainty, lack of creditworthiness and
political situation of EU banks, global economic slowdown concern with trade
war, geopolitical risk of the Middle East and Ukraine Etc exist as a risk
factor.
Real estate prices in China are flat in
large cities, but the problems of nonperforming loans in China as a whole such
as excessive facilities have not been resolved. If you hurry up the process, it
will lead to a short-term market drop, and if you delay proceeding, there is concern
that the economic recession will be prolonged.
Although the recent LIBOR interest rate has
been on a downward trend, it has been rising for the past five years, implying
that global bad debt continues to increase, and is aware of the possibility of
a resurgence of financial uncertainty.
On the other hand, the following points can
be pointed out as favorable materials. US interest rate cut expectations,
policy expectation of President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the
Bank of Japan, introduction of negative interest rate and purchase of ETF of 80
trillion yen · 6 trillion yen ETF Clarification of the duration of interest
rate manipulation and monetary easing and ECB deepens negative interest rate
and resumes quantitative easing.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is no trend in the medium-term, and no trend in the short term. The
Japanese market is upward trend in the medium-term, and no trend in the short
term.
Analysis of the foreign exchange market
last week showed that the US long-term interest rates declined, and the
US-Japan long-term interest rate gap shrank, but the exchange rate was moving
toward a weaker yen in weeks. This week, 106 yen to 108 yen is expected. From
now on, we need to focus on technical indicators, US market trends, currency
movements and foreign investor trends.
Last week's Nikkei average remained within
the expected range. The upper price was about 200 yen below the assumed line,
and the lower price was about 450 yen above the assumed line. The expected
range of this week's Nikkei average is the Bollinger Band + 1σ (currently
around 21940 yen), and the lower price is expected to move between the 25th day
(currently around 21280 yen).
