[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, There were few
participants at Christmas holidays and it was a small movement, but buying
became dominant. Meanwhile, in the medium to long term, there are fears of a
slowdown in the global economy due to the lack of creditworthiness of European
banks and concerns about credit contraction, the economic slowdown of emerging
economies such as China, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the
stagnation of crude oil prices, and We need continued attention to the
geopolitical risk of the Middle East and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 1.13 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2018 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 19.1 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 16.6,and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2018 is 1.1% more than the OECD forecast (Japan is
downgraded downwards or the US is upwardly modified) against the current Nikkei
average price, Or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be
in equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 20.4 (the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 23890 yen) By the way, the Japanese market is
cheap about 4460 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2018 GDP
estimate (now + 0.83%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was
positive. The daily bar is on the 200 day line, and it is on the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq bar on the 200-day line and is on the cloud of the ichimoku
table. This week we will be paying attention to housing related indicators, Consumer
confidence index in December, Chicago Purchasing Department Association
economic index in December, Trump regime system and policies. I would like to
pay attention to whether the historical record of the stock price index will
continue or not.
② The expected profit increase for the
Nikkei225 hires will be 8.2% with the announcement of the financial results for
July-September, and there is no change compared to three months ago. In
addition, the growth rate forecast for the current term is + 4.9%, an
improvement of 0.2 points compared with three months ago.
③ Long-term interest rates in the US
declined, the difference in interest rates between Japan and the US remained
unchanged from 2.49 to 2.49%, and the exchange rate was a move toward a stronger
yen from 116 yen level to 118 yen level.
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2018
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.8% in Japan and + 3.0% in the US, so
the Japanese market is worse by 2.2 points on this aspect.
⑤ In December 2nd, it is the dominance of
buying power, the possibility that it was dominant in the selling power in
December 3rd is high, and the dominance of selling power is expected this week.
Of five points ① was bullish material. It seems that ① ③ ⑤ will be affected this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical viewpoint of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 7.6points
in the mid to long term (about 1480 yen when calculating the Nikkei average)
and it is expensive. The ratio exceeds the previous week's expanding by 0.5
points.
In the US market NY Dow is on the 200 day,
25 day line, 9 day line. It is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. Nasdaq is on
the 200 day line, 25 day line, 9 day line. It is on the clouds of the itimoku table.
It is "green light" in the short term, "green light" is on
in the medium term.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, falling
high-yield bond market, financial market turmoil due to UK's withdrawal from
the EU, global long-term interest rate trends declined. However, there are
fears concerning the global economic slowdown due to the US interest rate
hikes, the creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, the economic slowdown of
emerging economies such as China, the sluggish growth of US corporate earnings,
geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as risk factors It exists.
China's real estate prices are rising in
big cities, but the problem of bad loans in China such as excessive facilities
has not been resolved. If you rush up the process, it will lead to a short-term
market decline, and there is a concern that prolonged recession will prolong
the recession.
Also, the most recent LIBOR interest rate
has been updated for the past five years high and conscious of the possibility
of financial unrest.
On the other hand, as favorable material,
the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New
President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of
negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion
yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration
of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation, maintenance of
different dimensions of monetary easing measures such as negative interest
rates on policy interest rates by the ECB and purchase of government bonds of
EUR 60 billion each month, interest rate reductions in emerging countries such
as China There is a trend.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is a medium-term upward trend, and it is upward trend in the short term. The Japanese market
is a medium-term upward trend, and it is upward trend in the short term.
Analyzing the situation in the immediate
Japanese market, Long-term interest rates in the US rose, long-term interest
rates in the US declined, the long-term interest rate gap between the US and
Japan remained unchanged, and the exchange rate became a strong yen movement in
the week. From now on, we need to pay attention to technical indicators, US
market trends, foreign exchange movements and foreign investor trends.
Last week's Nikkei average was within the
expected range. The upper price was lower than the assumed line by 110 yen, but
the lower price approached the assumed line.
This week's Nikkei average is expected to
move between the Bollinger band + 2σ (the current price is around 19760 yen)
whose rise is rising and the lower price is between Bollinger band + 1σ (around
19230 yen now).
