[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, buying became
dominant, due to the strong sense of anticipation for the economy policy of the
next trump regime. Meanwhile, in the medium to long term, there are fears of a
slowdown in the global economy due to the lack of creditworthiness of European
banks and concerns about credit contraction, the economic slowdown of emerging
economies such as China, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the
stagnation of crude oil prices, and We need continued attention to the
geopolitical risk of the Middle East and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets after taking into account the real GDP growth rate
in 2017 is 1.47 points less than in the US market, taking into account the
actual GDP estimate of the OECD in 2017. The reason for the bargain is due to
the difference between S&P500 's PER of 18.5 and the Nikkei average adopted
stock price PER 15.6,and Japan-US interest rate difference, GDP growth
difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth between Japan and the
US in 2017 is 1.5% more than the OECD forecast (Japan is downgraded downwards
or the US is upwardly modified) against the current Nikkei average price, Or it
can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in equilibrium,
because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be around 20.2 (the
results for the current term will be revised downwards or the Nikkei average
will be around 23840 yen) By the way, the Japanese market is cheap about 5460
yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2017 GDP
estimate (now + 0.4%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's weekly bar of NYDow became a
positive. The daily bar is on the 200 day line, and it is on the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq bar on the 200-day line and is on the cloud of the ichimoku
table. This week we will be paying attention to housing related indicators, the
Chicago Purchasing Department Association economic index in November, the ISM
manufacturing business conditions index in November, the employment statistics
in November, the structure and policies of the new administration. I would like
to pay attention to whether Nasdaq's daily bar can keep on the clouds of the ichimoku
table.
② The expected profit increase for the
Nikkei 225 hires will be 8.2% with the announcement of the financial results
for July-September, and there is no change compared to three months ago. In
addition, the growth rate forecast for the current term is + 4.9%, an
improvement of 0.1 points compared with three months ago.
③ Long-term interest rates in the US rose,
the difference in interest rates between Japan and the US expanded from 2.30 to
2.33%, and the exchange rate moved from the 110 yen range to the 113 yen level.
This week is estimated to be 115 yen from the 112 yen range.
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2017
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.4% in Japan and + 2.2% in the US, so
the Japanese market is worse by 1.8 points on this aspect.
⑤ There is a high possibility that it was
a over-buying the November 3 weeks and a November 4th week, so it is expected
that a over-buying is expected this week.
Of five points ① ③ ⑤ was bullish material. It seems that ① ③ ⑤ will be affected this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical viewpoint of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 3.1
points in the mid to long term (about 570 yen when calculating the Nikkei
average) and it is expensive. The ratio of the previous week's ratio increased
1.1 points.
The Nikkei average lies on the cloud of the
ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was + 23.8%, and the positive range
expanded compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate
was + 10.5%, and the positive width expanded. Since the three elements are
positive, the "green light" is on for the medium term trend. The
Nikkei average is on the 25th and 9th lines. The "green light" is on
for the short-term trend.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, falling
high-yield bond market, financial market turmoil due to UK's withdrawal from
the EU, global long-term interest rate trends declined. However, there are
fears concerning the global economic slowdown due to the US interest rate
hikes, the creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, the economic slowdown of
emerging economies such as China, the sluggish growth of US corporate earnings,
geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as risk factors It exists.
China's real estate prices are rising in
big cities, but the problem of bad loans in China such as excessive facilities
has not been resolved. If you rush up the process, it will lead to a short-term
market decline, and there is a concern that prolonged recession will prolong
the recession.
Also, the most recent LIBOR interest rate
has been updated for the past five years high and conscious of the possibility
of financial unrest.
On the other hand, as favorable material,
the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New
President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of
negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion
yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration
of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation, maintenance of
different dimensions of monetary easing measures such as negative interest
rates on policy interest rates by the ECB and purchase of government bonds of
EUR 80 billion each month, interest rate reductions in emerging countries such
as China There is a trend.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is a medium-term upward trend and it is a rising trend in the short
term. The Japanese market is a medium-term upward trend, and it is a rising
trend in the short term.
Analyzing the situation in the immediate
Japanese market, the 25-day moving average deviation rate is + 5.1%, and the
psychological line shows 83%, which indicates that it is getting too bad, so
the profit-taking pressure is likely to increase.
Long-term interest rates in the US rose,
the long-term interest rate gap between the US and Japan expanded, and the
exchange rate became a move toward a depreciation of the yen in the week. From
now on, we need to pay attention to technical indicators, US market trends,
foreign exchange movements and foreign investor trends.
This week's Nikkei average is expected to
move between the Bollinger band + 2σ (the current price is around 18430 yen)
whose rise is rising and the lower price is between the 25 day line (around
17500 yen now).
