[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, the stock
market index moved up and down as crude oil futures moved wildly. On the other
hand, in the medium to long term, the spread of new types of pneumonia, an
inward political situation centered on the world's own country, a lack of
creditworthiness and credit crunch of banks, a slowdown in China and other
economies, a fear of a slowdown in the global economy due to trade wars, etc.
The geopolitical risks of the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula and Ukraine
need continued attention.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 1.84 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2021 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 21.0 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 13.9 and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2020 is 1.8% more than the OECD forecast (Japan
will downgrade or US will be revised upward) against the current Nikkei average
price, or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in
equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 18.6 (the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 25870 yen) . In the medium to long term, the
Japanese market is low valued at about 6610 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2021 GDP
estimate (now +0.74%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was negative.
The daily bar is under the 200 day line, and it is in the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq weekly foot was positive. NASDAQ bar is above the 200-day line and
it is above the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying
attention to Housing related indicators, Quarterly financial results
announcement , GDP preliminary figures for January to March, ISM manufacturing
business index for April. I would like to pay attention to whether NYDow can keep
above the 25th day line.
② The forecasted profit growth rate for
the Nikkei 225 stocks is ROE forecast 6.7%, 1.4 points worse than three months
ago, due to the announcement of the latest quarterly financial results.
Earnings forecast for this term is -20.5%, 12.9 points worse than three months
ago.
③ Although the US long-term interest rate
declined, the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States
remained unchanged from 0.634% to 0.63%, and the exchange rate moved slightly
from 108 yen to 107 yen.
④ The real GDP growth rate forecast for
2021 in Japan and the United States of OECD was announced, Japan is expected to
be + 0.74%, and the United States is expected to be + 1.98%.
⑤ The 3rd week of April is a over selling.
there is a high possibility that the 4th week of April is a over selling, and
this week we are forecasting to over selling.
last week, ① was a bearish factor. It seems that ①,②,③,⑤ will be affected this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical viewpoint of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 14.0
points lower than NASDAQ in the medium to long term. (It is about 2700 yen when
it is based on the Nikkei average) Proportions expanded compared to last week.
The Nikkei is below the clouds in the
Ichimoku Kinko table. The overall divergence rate was -18.9%, a narrower range
than last week. The 200-day moving average divergence rate narrowed to -11.6%. As
the three factors are negative, the mid-term trend is lit with a "red signal".
The Nikkei average is above the 25_day moving average line but under the 9_day
moving average line, "yelloe signal
" is lit for short-term trends.
In the US market NY Dow is under the 200_day
line but above the 25_day line and the 9_day line. It is in the cloud of
ichimoku table. NASDAQ is above the 200_day average line and the 25_day average
line and the 9_day average line. It is above the cloud of the ichimoku table. In
the short term "green signal" is lit and in the medium term " yellow
signal" is lit.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as interest rate hikes in the United States, US-China trade
friction, US political uncertainty, North Korea issues are receding However, Spread
of pneumonia infection by new coronavirus, falling crude oil prices, worsening
U.S. corporate earnings, falling high yield bond markets , global long-term
interest rate decline trend, financial market turmoil caused by credit slumps, lack
of creditworthiness and political situation of EU banks, global economic
slowdown concern with trade war, geopolitical risk of the Middle East and
Ukraine Etc exist as a risk factor.
Real estate prices in China are flat in large
cities, but the problems of nonperforming loans in China as a whole such as
excessive facilities have not been resolved. If you hurry up the process, it
will lead to a short-term market drop, and if you delay proceeding, there is
concern that the economic recession will be prolonged.
In addition, although LIBOR interest rates
have been declining recently, LIBOR interest rates have risen in the past two
months despite the decline in short-term interest rates, and we are aware of
the possibility of financial instability recurrence.
On the other hand, good news is the US zero
interest rate policy, the Fed's direct financial support to companies including
the purchase of junk bonds, economic measures of $ 2 trillion, and President
Trump's policy expectations, monetary easing measures such as the Bank of
Japan's 2% inflation target, the introduction of negative interest rates and
the purchase of 80 trillion Japanese government bonds and 12 trillion yen in
ETFs, as well as expectations for economic measures by the Japanese government
that exceed the level of the Lehman Shock, large-scale economic measures by the
EU countries, and the ECB's announcement of deepening negative interest rates
and expanding quantitative easing.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is no trend in the medium-term, and upward trend in the short term. The
Japanese market is downward trend in the medium-term, and no trend in the short
term.
Analyzing the foreign exchange market last
week, although long-term interest rates in the United States fell, the
long-term interest rate differential between Japan and the United States did
not change, and exchange movements were small. It is expected to be in the
range of 108 to 106 yen this week.
The Nikkei average for last week remained
within the expected range. The upper price fell below the assumed line by about
860 yen, and the lower price exceeded the assumed line by about 110 yen. The
expected range of the Nikkei average this week is that the upper price is the
Bollinger band + 1σ (currently around 19680 yen) and the lower value is the
Bollinger band -1σ (currently around 18260 yen).
