Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [30-Apr-2017]

[Present state recognition of fundamental]

Last week in the US market, with expectations for the tax reform plan by President Trump and strong quarterly settlement of accounts, so buying power was dominant. In the medium to long term, there are fears of a slowdown in the global economy due to the lack of creditworthiness of European banks and concerns about credit contraction, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the stagnation of crude oil prices, and We need continued attention to the geopolitical risk of the Middle East and Ukraine.

The difference in the yield spread between the US and Japanese markets is 0.96 points less than in the Japanese market, taking into account the 2018 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 18.5 and the Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 16.0,and Japan-US interest rate difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth between Japan and the US in 2018 is 0.9% more than the OECD forecast (Japan is downgraded downwards or the US is upwardly modified) against the current Nikkei average price, Or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be around 18.9(the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the Nikkei average will be around 22670 yen) By the way, the Japanese market is cheap about 3480 yen.

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

① Rising US market

② UP of expected profit increase rate for the current term more than before

③ Expansion of the interest rate differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2018 GDP estimate (now + 0.83%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

Looking at recent movements

① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was negative. The daily bar is on the 200 day line, and it is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. Nasdaq weekly foot was negative. Nasdaq bar is on the 200-day line and the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to quarterly financial results announcement, housing related indicators, ISM manufacturing business conditions index of April, employment statistics of April., I would like to pay attention to whether NYDow can keep above the clouds of ichimoku table.

② The expected profit increase for the Nikkei225 hires will be 7.9% with the announcement of the financial results along with the announcement of the financial results for the October-December period, and it gained 0.3 points worse, compared to 3 months ago. In addition, The growth rate for the current business forecast is +5.6%, and it improved by 1.5 points compared to 3 months ago.

③ Long-term interest rates in the US has risen, the interest rate differential between Japan and the US expanded from 2.23 to 2.28%, and the exchange rate moved from the 109 yen level to 111 yen level. This week is estimated to be 109 yen range from 112 yen range.

④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2018 in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.8% in Japan and + 3.0% in the US, so the Japanese market is worse by 2.2 points on this aspect.

⑤ The 3rd week of Apr was a over buying and there is a high possibility that the 4th week of Apr is a over buying, and this week we are forecasting to over buying.

①,③,⑤ was bullish factor. It seems that ①,②,③,⑤ will be affected this week.

[Technical viewpoint]

From the technical viewpoint of the Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 3.6 points less expensive in the mid to long term (about 690 yen when calculating the Nikkei average) and it is cheap. The ratio shrank 0.8 points.

The Nikkei average in the cloud of the ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was +9.1%, and the positive range expanded compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate was + 6.5%, and the positive range expanded compared to last week. Since the tow elements are positive, the "yellow light" is on for the medium term trend. The Nikkei average is on the 25 day line and the 9 day line,  "green light " is on for short-term trends.

In the US market NY Dow is on the 200 day line and the 25 day and the 9 day line . It is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. Nasdaq is on the 200 day and the 25 day and the 9 day line. It is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. In the short term " green " is on and in the medium term green light" is on.

[Outlook for this week]

Looking at the US market fundamentally, concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, falling high-yield bond market, financial market turmoil due to UK's withdrawal from the EU, global long-term interest rate trends decline,etc. Concern is backwards. However, there are fears concerning the global economic slowdown due to the US interest rate hikes, the creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the sluggish growth of US corporate earnings, geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as risk factors It exists.

China's real estate prices are flat in big cities, but the problem of bad loans in China such as excessive facilities has not been resolved. If you rush up the process, it will lead to a short-term market decline, and there is a concern that prolonged recession will prolong the recession.

Also, the most recent LIBOR interest rate has been updated for the past five years high and conscious of the possibility of financial unrest.

On the other hand, as favorable material, the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation. Negative interest rates and purchase of government bonds are maintained for policy interest rates by the ECB. However, the government bond buy-out frame will be reduced from EUR 80 billion to EUR 60 billion in April 2017.

Looking at the technical aspect, the US market is rising trend in the medium-term, and rising trend in the short term. The Japanese market is no trend in the medium-term, and rising trend in the short term.

Analyzing the exchange market last week, Long-term interest rates in the US rose, the long-term interest rate gap between the US and Japan has expanded, so the exchange rate became a weak yen movement in the week. From now on, we need to pay attention to technical indicators, US market trends, foreign exchange movements and foreign investor's trends.

Last week's Nikkei average rose above the expected range. The upper price exceeded the assumed line by about 190 yen more, but the lower price exceeded the assumed line by about 350 yen. This week's Nikkei average is expected to move between upper price is Bollinger band +2σ (the current price is around 19410 yen) and the lower price is 25　day average line (the current price is around 18880 yen ).

Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [23-Apr-2017]

[Present state recognition of fundamental]

Last week in the US market, Policy expectations for the Trump regime were rekindled, so buying power was dominant. In the medium to long term, there are fears of a slowdown in the global economy due to the lack of creditworthiness of European banks and concerns about credit contraction, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the stagnation of crude oil prices, and We need continued attention to the geopolitical risk of the Middle East and Ukraine.

The difference in the yield spread between the US and Japanese markets is 1.03 points less than in the Japanese market, taking into account the 2018 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 18.4 and the Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 15.6,and Japan-US interest rate difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth between Japan and the US in 2018 is 1.0% more than the OECD forecast (Japan is downgraded downwards or the US is upwardly modified) against the current Nikkei average price, Or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be around 18.6(the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the Nikkei average will be around 22180 yen) By the way, the Japanese market is cheap about 3560 yen.

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

① Rising US market

② UP of expected profit increase rate for the current term more than before

③ Expansion of the interest rate differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2018 GDP estimate (now + 0.83%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

Looking at recent movements

① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was negative. The daily bar is on the 200 day line, and it is in the cloud of the ichimoku table. Nasdaq weekly foot was negative. Nasdaq bar is on the 200-day line and the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to quarterly financial results announcement, housing related indicators, Manufacturing business order in March, Preliminary GDP figures for January - March , I would like to pay attention to whether NYDow can go back above the clouds of ichimoku table.

② The expected profit increase for the Nikkei225 hires will be 7.9% with the announcement of the financial results along with the announcement of the financial results for the October-December period, and it gained 0.3 points worse, compared to 3 months ago. In addition, The growth rate for the current business forecast is +5.5%, and it improved by 0.5 points compared to 3 months ago.

③ Long-term interest rates in the US has risen, the interest rate differential between Japan and the US expanded from 2.34 to 2.23%, and the exchange rate moved from the 108 yen level to 109 yen level. This week is estimated to be 108 yen range from 110 yen range.

④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2018 in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.8% in Japan and + 3.0% in the US, so the Japanese market is worse by 2.2 points on this aspect.

⑤ The 2nd week of Apr was a over buying and there is a high possibility that the 3rd week of Apr is a over buying, and this week we are forecasting to over buying.

① was bullrish factor. It seems that ①,②,③,⑤ will be affected this week.

[Technical viewpoint]

From the technical viewpoint of the Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 4.4 points less expensive in the mid to long term (about 820 yen when calculating the Nikkei average) and it is cheap. The ratio was expanded 0.3 points.

The Nikkei average under the cloud of the ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was +0.1%, and change to the positive range compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate was + 3.8%, and the positive range expanded compared to last week. Since the tow elements are positive, the "yellow light" is on for the medium term trend. The Nikkei average is under the 25 day line but it is on the 9th line,  "yellow light " is on for short-term trends.

In the US market NY Dow is on the 200 day line and 9 day line but under the 25 day . It is in the cloud of the ichimoku table. Nasdaq is on the 200 day and the 25 day and the 9 day line. It is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. In the short term " yellow " is on and in the medium term yellow light" is on.

[Outlook for this week]

Looking at the US market fundamentally, concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, falling high-yield bond market, financial market turmoil due to UK's withdrawal from the EU, global long-term interest rate trends decline,etc. Concern is backwards. However, there are fears concerning the global economic slowdown due to the US interest rate hikes, the creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the sluggish growth of US corporate earnings, geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as risk factors It exists.

China's real estate prices are flat in big cities, but the problem of bad loans in China such as excessive facilities has not been resolved. If you rush up the process, it will lead to a short-term market decline, and there is a concern that prolonged recession will prolong the recession.

Also, the most recent LIBOR interest rate has been updated for the past five years high and conscious of the possibility of financial unrest.

On the other hand, as favorable material, the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation. Negative interest rates and purchase of government bonds are maintained for policy interest rates by the ECB. However, the government bond buy-out frame will be reduced from EUR 80 billion to EUR 60 billion in April 2017.

Looking at the technical aspect, the US market is no trend in the medium-term, and no trend in the short term. The Japanese market is no trend in the medium-term, and no trend in the short term.

Analyzing the exchange market last week, Long-term interest rates in the US decreased, the long-term interest rate gap between the US and Japan has shrunk, so the exchange rate became a strong yen movement in the week. From now on, we need to pay attention to technical indicators, US market trends, foreign exchange movements and foreign investor's trends.

Last week's Nikkei average was a move in the expected range. The upper price approached the assumed line and approached 80 yen more, but the lower price exceeded the assumed line by about 110 yen. This week's Nikkei average is expected to move between upper price is Bollinger band -1σ (the current price is around 19170 yen) and the lower price is Bollinger band -1σ line (the current price is around 18490 yen ).

Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [16-Apr-2017]

[Present state recognition of fundamental]

Last week in the US market, long-term interest rates declined and geopolitical risks became disgusted, so selling power was dominant. In the medium to long term, there are fears of a slowdown in the global economy due to the lack of creditworthiness of European banks and concerns about credit contraction, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the stagnation of crude oil prices, and We need continued attention to the geopolitical risk of the Middle East and Ukraine.

The difference in the yield spread between the US and Japanese markets is 1.05 points less than in the Japanese market, taking into account the 2018 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 18.1 and the Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 15.4,and Japan-US interest rate difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth between Japan and the US in 2018 is 1.0% more than the OECD forecast (Japan is downgraded downwards or the US is upwardly modified) against the current Nikkei average price, Or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be around 18.4(the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the Nikkei average will be around 21870 yen) By the way, the Japanese market is cheap about 3540 yen.

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

① Rising US market

② UP of expected profit increase rate for the current term more than before

③ Expansion of the interest rate differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2018 GDP estimate (now + 0.83%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

Looking at recent movements

① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was negative. The daily bar is on the 200 day line, and it is in the cloud of the ichimoku table. Nasdaq weekly foot was negative. Nasdaq bar is on the 200-day line and the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to quarterly financial results announcement, housing related indicators, New York Fed Manufacturing business confidence index in April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing business confidence index in April, I would like to pay attention to whether NYDow can go back above the clouds of ichimoku table.

② The expected profit increase for the Nikkei225 hires will be 7.9% with the announcement of the financial results along with the announcement of the financial results for the October-December period, and it gained 0.5 points worse, compared to 3 months ago. In addition, The growth rate for the current business forecast is +5.5%, and it improved by 0.6 points compared to 3 months ago.

③ Long-term interest rates in the US has risen, the interest rate differential between Japan and the US expanded from 2.33 to 2.24%, and the exchange rate moved from the 111 yen level to 108 yen level. This week is estimated to be 107 yen range from 110 yen range.

④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2018 in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.8% in Japan and + 3.0% in the US, so the Japanese market is worse by 2.2 points on this aspect.

⑤ The 1st week of Apr was a over buying and there is a high possibility that the 2nd week of Apr is a over selling, and this week we are forecasting to over selling.

①,②,③ was bearish factor. It seems that ①,②,③,⑤ will be affected this week.

[Technical viewpoint]

From the technical viewpoint of the Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 4.1 points less expensive in the mid to long term (about 750 yen when calculating the Nikkei average) and it is cheap. The ratio was expanded 0.4 points.

The Nikkei average under the cloud of the ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was -5.5%, and the negative range expanded compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate was + 2.7%, and the positive range shrunk compared to last week. Since the tow elements are negative, the "yellow light" is on for the medium term trend. The Nikkei average is under the 25 day line and the 9th line,  " red light " is on for short-term trends.

In the US market NY Dow is on the 200 day line but under the 25 day and 9 day line . It is in the cloud of the ichimoku table. Nasdaq is on the 200 day but under the 25 day and 9 day line. It is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. In the short term " red light " is on and in the medium term yellow light" is on.

[Outlook for this week]

Looking at the US market fundamentally, concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, falling high-yield bond market, financial market turmoil due to UK's withdrawal from the EU, global long-term interest rate trends decline,etc. Concern is backwards. However, there are fears concerning the global economic slowdown due to the US interest rate hikes, the creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the sluggish growth of US corporate earnings, geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as risk factors It exists.

China's real estate prices are flat in big cities, but the problem of bad loans in China such as excessive facilities has not been resolved. If you rush up the process, it will lead to a short-term market decline, and there is a concern that prolonged recession will prolong the recession.

Also, the most recent LIBOR interest rate has been updated for the past five years high and conscious of the possibility of financial unrest.

On the other hand, as favorable material, the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation. Negative interest rates and purchase of government bonds are maintained for policy interest rates by the ECB. However, the government bond buy-out frame will be reduced from EUR 80 billion to EUR 60 billion in April 2017.

Looking at the technical aspect, the US market is no trend in the medium-term, and no trend in the short term. The Japanese market is no trend in the medium-term, and downward trend in the short term.

Analyzing the exchange market last week, Long-term interest rates in the US decreased, the long-term interest rate gap between the US and Japan has shrunk, so the exchange rate became a strong yen movement in the week. From now on, we need to pay attention to technical indicators, US market trends, foreign exchange movements and foreign investor's trends.

Last week's Nikkei average was a move in the expected range. The upper price was lower than the assumed line by about 140 yen, and the lower price was higher than the assumed line by about 130 yen. This week's Nikkei average is expected to move between upper price is 25 day moving average line -100 yen(the current price is around 18960 yen) and the lower price is Bollinger band -2σ line -100 yen (the current price is around 18180 yen ).

Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [9-Apr-2017]

[Present state recognition of fundamental]

Last week in the US market, long-term interest rates declined and geopolitical risks became disgusted, so no trends appeared. In the medium to long term, there are fears of a slowdown in the global economy due to the lack of creditworthiness of European banks and concerns about credit contraction, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the stagnation of crude oil prices, and We need continued attention to the geopolitical risk of the Middle East and Ukraine.

The difference in the yield spread between the US and Japanese markets is 1.22 points less than in the Japanese market, taking into account the 2018 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 18.2 and the Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 15.2,and Japan-US interest rate difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth between Japan and the US in 2018 is 1.2% more than the OECD forecast (Japan is downgraded downwards or the US is upwardly modified) against the current Nikkei average price, Or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be around 18.7(the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the Nikkei average will be around 22940 yen) By the way, the Japanese market is cheap about 4270 yen.

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

① Rising US market

② UP of expected profit increase rate for the current term more than before

③ Expansion of the interest rate differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2018 GDP estimate (now + 0.83%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

Looking at recent movements

① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was positive. The daily bar is on the 200 day line, and it is in the cloud of the ichimoku table. Nasdaq weekly foot was negative. Nasdaq bar is on the 200-day line and the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to quarterly financial results announcement, retail sales in March, I would like to pay attention to whether NYDow can go back above the clouds of ichimoku table.

② The expected profit increase for the Nikkei225 hires will be 8.1% with the announcement of the financial results along with the announcement of the financial results for the October-December period, and it gained 0.2 points worse, compared to 3 months ago. In addition, The growth rate for the current business forecast is +8.7%, and it improved by 3.0 points compared to 3 months ago.

③ Long-term interest rates in the US has risen, the interest rate differential between Japan and the US expanded from 2.33 to 2.33%, and the exchange rate moved from the 111 yen level to 110 yen level. This week is estimated to be 109 yen range from 112 yen range.

④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2018 in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.8% in Japan and + 3.0% in the US, so the Japanese market is worse by 2.2 points on this aspect.

⑤ The 5th week of Mar was a over selling and there is a high possibility that the 1st week of Apr is a over selling, , and this week we are forecasting to over selling.

⑤ was bearish factor. It seems that ①,③,⑤ will be affected this week.

[Technical viewpoint]

From the technical viewpoint of the Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 3.7 points less expensive in the mid to long term (about 590 yen when calculating the Nikkei average) and it is cheap. The ratio was expanded 0.6 points.

The Nikkei average under the cloud of the ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was -0.9%, and the changed to minus compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate was + 4.9%, and the positive range shrunk compared to last week. Since the tow elements are negative, the "yellow light" is on for the medium term trend. The Nikkei average is under the 25 day line and the 9th line,  " red light " is on for short-term trends.

In the US market NY Dow is on the 200 day line but under the 25 day and 9 day line . It is in the cloud of the ichimoku table. Nasdaq lies on the 200 day and the 9 day line , but under the 25 day line. It is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. In the short term " yellow light " is on and in the medium term yellow light" is on.

[Outlook for this week]

Looking at the US market fundamentally, concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, falling high-yield bond market, financial market turmoil due to UK's withdrawal from the EU, global long-term interest rate trends decline,etc. Concern is backwards. However, there are fears concerning the global economic slowdown due to the US interest rate hikes, the creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the sluggish growth of US corporate earnings, geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as risk factors It exists.

China's real estate prices are flat in big cities, but the problem of bad loans in China such as excessive facilities has not been resolved. If you rush up the process, it will lead to a short-term market decline, and there is a concern that prolonged recession will prolong the recession.

Also, the most recent LIBOR interest rate has been updated for the past five years high and conscious of the possibility of financial unrest.

On the other hand, as favorable material, the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation. Negative interest rates and purchase of government bonds are maintained for policy interest rates by the ECB. However, the government bond buy-out frame will be reduced from EUR 80 billion to EUR 60 billion in April 2017.

Looking at the technical aspect, the US market is no trend in the medium-term, and no trend in the short term. The Japanese market is no trend in the medium-term, and downward trend in the short term.

Analyzing the exchange market last week, Long-term interest rates in the US decreased, the long-term interest rate gap between the US and Japan has shrunk, so the exchange rate became a strong yen movement in the week. From now on, we need to pay attention to technical indicators, US market trends, foreign exchange movements and foreign investor's trends.

Last week's Nikkei average was a move down the expected range.The upper price was lower than the assumed line by about 240 yen, and the lower price was lower than the assumed line by about 150 yen. This week's Nikkei average is expected to move between upper price is 25 day moving average line +200yen(the current price is around 19020 yen) and the lower price is Bollinger band -2σ line +200yen (the current price is around 18420 yen ).

Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [2-Apr-2017]

[Present state recognition of fundamental]

Last week in the US market, improving economic indicators, so buying power is dominant. Meanwhile, in the medium to long term, there are fears of a slowdown in the global economy due to the lack of creditworthiness of European banks and concerns about credit contraction, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the stagnation of crude oil prices, and We need continued attention to the geopolitical risk of the Middle East and Ukraine.

The difference in the yield spread between the US and Japanese markets is 1.19 points less than in the Japanese market, taking into account the 2018 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 18.5 and the Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 15.5,and Japan-US interest rate difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth between Japan and the US in 2018 is 1.2% more than the OECD forecast (Japan is downgraded downwards or the US is upwardly modified) against the current Nikkei average price, Or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be around 19.0(the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the Nikkei average will be around 23190 yen) By the way, the Japanese market is cheap about 4280 yen.

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

① Rising US market

② UP of expected profit increase rate for the current term more than before

③ Expansion of the interest rate differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2018 GDP estimate (now + 0.83%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

Looking at recent movements

① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was positive. The daily bar is on the 200 day line, and it is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. Nasdaq bar is on the 200-day line and the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to housing related indicators, ISM Manufacturing Industry Situation Index in March, Employment Statistics in March, I would like to pay attention to whether NYDow can maintain above the clouds of ichimoku table.

② The expected profit increase for the Nikkei225 hires will be 8.1% with the announcement of the financial results along with the announcement of the financial results for the October-December period, and it gained 0.2 points worse, compared to 3 months ago. In addition, The growth rate for the current business forecast is +7.9%, and it improved by 3.0 points compared to 3 months ago.

③ Long-term interest rates in the US has risen, the interest rate differential between Japan and the US expanded from 2.35 to 2.33%, and the exchange rate moved from the 112 yen level to 110 yen level. This week is estimated to be 110 yen range from 113 yen range.

④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2018 in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.8% in Japan and + 3.0% in the US, so the Japanese market is worse by 2.2 points on this aspect.

⑤ The 4th week of Mar was a over selling and there is a high possibility that the 5th week of Mar is a over selling, , and this week we are forecasting to over selling.

① was bullish factor and ⑤ was bearish factor. It seems that ①,③,⑤ will be affected this week.

[Technical viewpoint]

From the technical viewpoint of the Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 3.1 points in the mid to long term (about 590 yen when calculating the Nikkei average) and it is cheap. The ratio was shrunk 3.3 points.

The Nikkei average under the cloud of the ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was + 2.7%, and the positive range shrunk compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate was + 6.7%, and the positive range shrunk compared to last week. Since the three elements are positive, the "yellow light" is on for the medium term trend. The Nikkei average is under the 25 day line and the 9th line,  " red light " is on for short-term trends.

In the US market NY Dow is on the 200 day line and 9 day line but under the 25 day line. It is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. Nasdaq lies on the 200 day line ,25 day line and the 9 day line. It is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. In the short term " yellow light " is on and in the medium term "green light" is on.

[Outlook for this week]

Looking at the US market fundamentally, concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, falling high-yield bond market, financial market turmoil due to UK's withdrawal from the EU, global long-term interest rate trends decline,etc. Concern is backwards. However, there are fears concerning the global economic slowdown due to the US interest rate hikes, the creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the sluggish growth of US corporate earnings, geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as risk factors It exists.

China's real estate prices are flat in big cities, but the problem of bad loans in China such as excessive facilities has not been resolved. If you rush up the process, it will lead to a short-term market decline, and there is a concern that prolonged recession will prolong the recession.

Also, the most recent LIBOR interest rate has been updated for the past five years high and conscious of the possibility of financial unrest.

On the other hand, as favorable material, the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation. Negative interest rates and purchase of government bonds are maintained for policy interest rates by the ECB. However, the government bond buy-out frame will be reduced from EUR 80 billion to EUR 60 billion in April 2017.

Looking at the technical aspect, the US market is upward trend in the medium-term, and upward trend in the short term. The Japanese market is upward trend in the medium-term, and upward trend in the short term.

Analyzing the exchange market last week, Long-term interest rates in the US decreased, the long-term interest rate gap between the US and Japan has shrunk, so the exchange rate became a strong yen movement in the week. From now on, we need to pay attention to technical indicators, US market trends, foreign exchange movements and foreign investor's trends.

Last week's Nikkei average was almost within the expected range. The upper price was lower than the assumed line by about 100 yen, but the lower price was about 50 yen below the assumed line. This week's Nikkei average is expected to move between upper price is 25 day moving average line (the current price is around 19320 yen) and the lower price is Bollinger band -2σ line (the current price is around 18890 yen ).