[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, the view that
the US-China trade negotiations were favorable expanded, and buying became
dominant. In the medium to long term, there are fears of a slowdown in the
global economy due to confusion of US politics, raise rate by FRB, European
political turmoil and the creditworthiness of European banks and credit crunch
concerns, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, and concern
over the global economic slowdown due to trade war. We need continued attention
to the geopolitical risk of the Middle East , Korean Peninsula and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 3.29 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2020 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 17.0 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 12.3 and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2019 is 3.3% more than the OECD forecast (Japan
will downgrade or US will be revised upward) against the current Nikkei average
price, or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in
equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 20.8 (the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 35710 yen) . In the medium to long term, the
Japanese market is low valued at about 14510 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2020 GDP
estimate (now +0.68%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was positive.
The daily bar is above the 200 day line, and it is above the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq weekly foot was positive. NASDAQ bar is above the 200-day line and
the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to Housing
related indicators, Quarterly financial results announcement , Consumer
Confidence Index for March, Chicago Purchasing Department Index for March. I
would like to pay attention to whether NYDow can keep above the 25th day line.
② The expected profit increase for the
Nikkei 225 hires will be 9.1% with the announcement of the financial results
for the October-December term, 0.2 points worse than 3 months ago. In addition,
the profit growth rate for the current business forecast is -6.1%, 3.9 point
worse than three months ago.
③ The long-term interest rates in the
United States fell, the interest rate differential between Japan and the US
shrank from 2.52% to 2.51%, but the exchange rate moved from the 109 yen range
to the 110 yen range, indicating a weaker yen.
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2020
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.68% in Japan and + 2.13% in the US,
so the Japanese market is worse by 1.45 points on this aspect.
⑤ The 3rd week of March is a over selling. there is a high
possibility that the 4th week of March is
a over selling, and this week we are forecasting to over buying.
last week ①,⑤ was a bearish factor. It seems that ①,②,③,⑤ will be affected this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical viewpoint of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 6.7
points lower than NASDAQ in the medium to long term. (It is about 1420 yen when
it is based on the Nikkei average) Proportions expanded compared to last week.
The Nikkei average is above the cloud of
the ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was -3.3%, and changed to the negative
width compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate was
-3.3%, and the negative width expanded. Since the tow elements are negative,
the "yellow signal" is lit in the medium term trend. The Nikkei
average is under the 25_day moving average line and the 9_day moving average
line, "red signal " is lit for
short-term trends.
In the US market NY Dow is above the 200_day
line and the 25_day line and the 9_day line. It is above the cloud of ichimoku
table. NASDAQ is above the 200_day average line and the 25_day average line and
the 9_day average line. It is above the cloud of the ichimoku table. In the
short term "green signal" is lit and in the medium term "green signal"
is lit.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as the rise in US interest rates, sluggish US business
performance, financial market turmoil due to credit contraction, the situation
in North Korea, the decline in the high yield bond market are decreasing.
However, due to the trend of declining long-term interest rates worldwide,
economic slowdown in the US, slump in crude oil prices, uncertainty in US
politics, lack of credit and political situation in banks in the EU region,
economic slowdown in emerging countries such as China and trade warfare Concern
over the global economic slowdown, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine,
etc. exist as risk factors.
Real estate prices in China are flat in
large cities, but the problems of nonperforming loans in China as a whole such
as excessive facilities have not been resolved. If you hurry up the process, it
will lead to a short-term market drop, and if you delay proceeding, there is
concern that the economic recession will be prolonged.
Also, the latest LIBOR interest rate is on
the upward trend, it continues to update the high price in the past five years,
which implies that global nonperforming debt continues to increase, and the
possibility of financial unrest is revealed .
On the other hand, the following points can
be pointed out as favorable materials. In addition to monetary easing measures
such as the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of
President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the Bank of Japan,
introduction of negative interest rate and purchase of ETF of 80 trillion yen ·
6 trillion yen ETF Clarification of the duration of interest rate manipulation
and monetary easing and announcement of maintaining the level of policy
interest rates by the ECB during the year.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is upward trend in the medium-term, and upward trend in the short term.
The Japanese market is no trend in the medium-term, and down ward trend in the
short term.
An analysis of last week's foreign exchange
market showed that while the US long-term interest rates fell and the
difference between long-term interest rates narrowed, the yen was weak in the
week. This week, 110 yen to 112 yen is expected. From now on, we need to focus
on technical indicators, US market trends, currency movements and foreign
investor trends.
Last week's Nikkei dropped below the
expected range. The upper price was about 10 yen higher than the expected line,
and the lower price was about 140 yen lower than the expected line. This week's
Nikkei average is expected to move between Bollinger Band + 1σ (currently
around 21640 yen) and Lowering Value between Bollinger Band-1σ (currently
around 20210 yen).
