[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, selling became
dominant due to the US administration's sanctions against Huawei. In the medium
to long term, there are fears of a slowdown in the global economy due to confusion
of US politics, raise rate by FRB, European political turmoil and the
creditworthiness of European banks and credit crunch concerns, the economic
slowdown of emerging economies such as China, and concern over the global economic
slowdown due to trade war. We need continued attention to the geopolitical risk
of the Middle East , Korean Peninsula and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 3.28 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2020 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 17.0 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 11.8 and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2019 is 3.3% more than the OECD forecast (Japan
will downgrade or US will be revised upward) against the current Nikkei average
price, or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in
equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 19.3 (the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 34500 yen) . In the medium to long term, the
Japanese market is low valued at about 12280 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2020 GDP
estimate (now +0.68%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was negative.
The daily bar is above the 200 day line, and it is under the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq weekly foot was positive. NASDAQ bar is above the 200-day line and
in the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to Housing
related indicators, Quarterly financial results announcement , Consumer
Confidence Index for May, Revised GDP for January to March. I would like to pay
attention to whether NYDow can return above the 25th day line.
② The expected profit increase for the
Nikkei 225 hires will be 8.9% with the announcement of the financial results
for the January-March term, 0.3 points worse than 3 months ago. In addition,
the profit growth rate for the current business forecast is +3.3%, an
improvement of 7.0 points from three months ago..
③ The long-term interest rates in the
United States decreased, the interest rate differential between Japan and the
US shrank from 2.46% to 2.39%, and the exchange rate moved from the ¥ 110 level
to the ¥ 109 level.
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2020
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.61% in Japan and + 2.28% in the US,
so the Japanese market is worse by 1.67 points on this aspect.
⑤ The 2nd week of May is a over buying. there is a high
possibility that the 3rd week of May is
a over selling, and this week we are forecasting to over selling.
last week, ①,③ were a bearish factor. It seems that ①,②,③,⑤ will be affected this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical viewpoint of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 4.9
points lower than NASDAQ in the medium to long term. (It is about 1030 yen when
it is based on the Nikkei average) Proportions shrank compared to last week.
The Nikkei average is in the cloud of the
ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was -7.4%, and expanded the negative
width compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate was
-3.2%, and expanded the negative width compared to last week. Since the tow
elements is negative, the "yellow signal" is lit in the medium term
trend. The Nikkei average is under the 25_day moving average line and the 9_day
moving average line, "red signal
" is lit for short-term trends.
In the US market NY Dow is above the 200_day
line but under the 25_day line and the 9_day line. It is under the cloud of
ichimoku table. NASDAQ is above the 200_day average line but under the 25_day
average line and the 9_day average line. It is in the cloud of the ichimoku
table. In the short term "red signal" is lit and in the medium term
"yellow signal" is lit.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as interest rate hikes in the United States, sluggish growth in
US corporate performance, financial market turmoil caused by credit slumps,
North Korea issues, falling crude oil prices and falling high yield bond
markets are receding However, global long-term interest rate decline trend,
US-China trade friction, US political uncertainty, lack of creditworthiness and
political situation of EU banks, global economic slowdown concern with trade
war, geopolitical risk of the Middle East and Ukraine Etc exist as a risk
factor.
Real estate prices in China are flat in
large cities, but the problems of nonperforming loans in China as a whole such
as excessive facilities have not been resolved. If you hurry up the process, it
will lead to a short-term market drop, and if you delay proceeding, there is
concern that the economic recession will be prolonged.
Also, the latest LIBOR interest rate is on
the upward trend, it continues to update the high price in the past five years,
which implies that global nonperforming debt continues to increase, and the
possibility of financial unrest is revealed .
On the other hand, the following points can
be pointed out as favorable materials. US rate hike interruption, policy
expectation of President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the Bank of
Japan, introduction of negative interest rate and purchase of ETF of 80
trillion yen · 6 trillion yen ETF Clarification of the duration of interest
rate manipulation and monetary easing and announcement of maintaining the level
of policy interest rates by the ECB during the year.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is no trend in the medium-term, and downward trend in the short term.
The Japanese market is no trend in the medium-term, and downward trend in the
short term.
An analysis of last week's foreign exchange
market showed that while the US long-term interest rates declined and the
difference between long-term interest rates shrank, but the yen was weak in the
week. This week, 110 yen to 108 yen is expected. From now on, we need to focus
on technical indicators, US market trends, currency movements and foreign
investor trends.
Last week's Nikkei average remained within
the expected range. The upper price was about 330 yen lower than the expected
line, and the lower price was about 190 yen higher than the expected line. This
week's Nikkei average is expected to move on the 25th (currently around 21690
yen) on the 25th, and the lower value between Bollinger Band-2σ (currently near
20730 yen).
