[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, with expectation
for the economy policy of the Trump regime and generally good for the performance of major companies, buying
power is dominant. Meanwhile, in the medium to long term, there are fears of a
slowdown in the global economy due to the lack of creditworthiness of European
banks and concerns about credit contraction, the economic slowdown of emerging
economies such as China, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the
stagnation of crude oil prices, and We need continued attention to the
geopolitical risk of the Middle East and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 0.56 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2018 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 17.5 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 16.6,and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2018 is 0.5% more than the OECD forecast (Japan is
downgraded downwards or the US is upwardly modified) against the current Nikkei
average price, Or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be
in equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 18.3(the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 21460 yen) By the way, the Japanese market is
cheap about 1990 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2018 GDP
estimate (now + 0.83%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was positive.
The daily bar is on the 200 day line, and it is on the cloud of the ichimoku table.
Nasdaq bar on the 200-day line and is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. This
week we will be paying attention to housing related indicators, the Chicago PMI
in January, the ISM manufacturing business conditions index in January, FOMC,
employment statistics in January. I would like to pay attention to whether
NYDow can keep on the 25th day moving average line.
② The expected profit increase for the
Nikkei225 hires will be 8.2% with the announcement of the financial results for
July-September, and there is no change compared to three months ago. In
addition, The growth rate for the current business forecast is + 5.0%, and it
improved by 0.6 points compared to 3 months ago.
③ Long-term interest rates in the US rose,
the interest rate differential between Japan and the US expanded from 2.42 to
2.41%, and the exchange rate moved from the 112 yen level to 115 yen level, a
move toward the depreciation of the yen. This week is estimated to be 113 yen
range from 116 yen range.
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2018
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.8% in Japan and + 3.0% in the US, so
the Japanese market is worse by 2.2 points on this aspect.
⑤ The 3rd week of January was a over selling
and there is a high possibility that the 4th week of January is a over buying, ,
and this week we are forecasting to over buying.
① and ⑤ was the bullish factor. It seems that ①, ③,⑤ will be affected
this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical viewpoint of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 4.0 points
in the mid to long term (about 780 yen when calculating the Nikkei average) and
it is expensive. The ratio exceeds the previous week's decrease by 0.6 points.
The Nikkei average on the cloud of the
ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was + 21.2%, and the positive range expanded
compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate was + 13.6%,
and the positive range expanded compared to last week. Since the three elements
are positive, the "green light" is on for the medium term trend. The
Nikkei average is on the 25 day line and the ninth day line, It is under.
" green light " is on for short-term trends.
In the US market NY Dow is on the 200 day
line, and the 25 day line, 9 day line. It is on the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq lies on the 200th and 25th line, the 9th line. It is on the cloud
of the ichimoku table. In the short term " green light " is on and in
the medium term "green light" is on.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally, concerns
such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, falling high-yield
bond market, financial market turmoil due to UK's withdrawal from the EU,
global long-term interest rate trends declin,etc. Concern is backwards.
However, there are fears concerning the global economic slowdown due to the US
interest rate hikes, the creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, the
economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the sluggish growth of
US corporate earnings, geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as
risk factors It exists.
China's real estate prices are rising in
big cities, but the problem of bad loans in China such as excessive facilities
has not been resolved. If you rush up the process, it will lead to a short-term
market decline, and there is a concern that prolonged recession will prolong
the recession.
Also, the most recent LIBOR interest rate
has been updated for the past five years high and conscious of the possibility
of financial unrest.
On the other hand, as favorable material,
the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New
President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of
negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion
yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration
of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation, maintenance of
different dimensions of monetary easing measures such as negative interest
rates on policy interest rates by the ECB and purchase of government bonds of
EUR 60 billion each month, interest rate reductions in emerging countries such
as China There is a trend.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is a medium-term upward trend, and in the short term upward trend. The
Japanese market is a medium-term upward trend, and upward trend in the short
term.
Analyzing the situation in the immediate
Japanese market, Long-term interest rates in the US rose, although the
long-term interest rate gap between Japan and the US shrank, the exchange rate
became a move toward a depreciation of the yen in the week. From now on, we
need to pay attention to technical indicators, US market trends, foreign
exchange movements and foreign investor trends.
Last week's Nikkei average went up within
the expected range. The upper price was higher than the assumed line by about 240
yen, and the lower price was close to the assumed line
This week's Nikkei average is expected to
move between upper price is Bollinger band +2σ line (the current price is
around 19710 yen) and the lower price is the 25-day moving average line (the
current price is around 19240 yen ).
