[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, both the US and
China announced additional tariffs and plummeted on weekends due to
intensifying trade friction. In the medium to long term, there are fears of a
slowdown in the global economy due to confusion of US politics, raise rate by
FRB, European political turmoil and the creditworthiness of European banks and
credit crunch concerns, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as
China, and concern over the global economic slowdown due to trade war. We need
continued attention to the geopolitical risk of the Middle East , Korean
Peninsula and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 3.00 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2020 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 17.7 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 11.7 and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2019 is 3.0% more than the OECD forecast (Japan will
downgrade or US will be revised upward) against the current Nikkei average
price, or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in
equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 18.0 (the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 31030 yen) . In the medium to long term, the
Japanese market is low valued at about 10890 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2020 GDP
estimate (now +0.68%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was negative.
The daily bar is above the 200 day line, and it is under the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq weekly foot was negative. NASDAQ bar is above the 200-day line and
it is under the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying
attention to Housing related indicators, Quarterly financial results
announcement , Orders for durable goods in July, revised GDP for April-June
period. I would like to pay attention to whether NYDow can return above the
25th day line.
②The forecast ROE for Nikkei 225 stocks
for the current term is 8.7%, 0.1 points worse than the previous three months
due to the announcement of financial results for the April-June period. In
addition, the profit growth rate of the business forecast for the current term
is + 0.6%, 2.7 points worse than the
previous three months.
③The long-term interest rates in the
United States decreased, the interest rate differential between Japan and the
US shrunk from 1.79% to 1.77%, and the currency exchange rate trended between ¥
106 and ¥ 105. Last week was a strong yen.
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2020
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.61% in Japan and + 2.28% in the US,
so the Japanese market is worse by 1.67 points on this aspect.
⑤ The 2nd week of June is a over selling. there is a high
possibility that the 3rd week of August is
a over selling, and this week we are forecasting to over selling.
last week, ①,②,③ ware bearish
factor. It seems that ①,②,③,⑤ will be affected
this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical viewpoint of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 4.8
points lower than NASDAQ in the medium to long term. (It is about 990 yen when
it is based on the Nikkei average) Proportions shrunk compared to last week.
The Nikkei average is under the cloud of
the ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was -11.8%, and expanded to the negative
width compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate was
-4.2%, and expanded to the negative width compared to last week. Since the three
elements ware negative, the "red signal" is lit in the medium term
trend. The Nikkei average is under the 25_day moving average line and the 9_day
moving average line, "red signal
" is lit for short-term trends.
In the US market NY Dow is above the 200_day
line but under the 25_day line and the 9_day line. It is under the cloud of
ichimoku table. NASDAQ is above the 200_day average line but under the 25_day
average line and above the 9_day average line. It is in the cloud of the
ichimoku table. In the short term "yellow signal" is lit and in the
medium term " yellow signal" is lit.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as interest rate hikes in the United States, sluggish growth in
US corporate performance, financial market turmoil caused by credit slumps,
North Korea issues, falling crude oil prices and falling high yield bond
markets are receding However, global long-term interest rate decline trend,
US-China trade friction, US political uncertainty, lack of creditworthiness and
political situation of EU banks, global economic slowdown concern with trade
war, geopolitical risk of the Middle East and Ukraine Etc exist as a risk
factor.
Real estate prices in China are flat in
large cities, but the problems of nonperforming loans in China as a whole such
as excessive facilities have not been resolved. If you hurry up the process, it
will lead to a short-term market drop, and if you delay proceeding, there is
concern that the economic recession will be prolonged.
Although the recent LIBOR interest rate has
been on a downward trend, it has been rising for the past five years, implying
that global bad debt continues to increase, and is aware of the possibility of
a resurgence of financial uncertainty.
On the other hand, the following points can
be pointed out as favorable materials. US interest rate cut expectations,
policy expectation of President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the
Bank of Japan, introduction of negative interest rate and purchase of ETF of 80
trillion yen · 6 trillion yen ETF Clarification of the duration of interest
rate manipulation and monetary easing and ECB Suggests Policy Rate Reductions.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is no trend in the medium-term, and no trend in the short term. The
Japanese market is downward trend in the medium-term, and downward trend in the
short term.
Analysis of the foreign exchange market
last week showed that the US long-term interest rates declined, and the
US-Japan long-term interest rate gap shrunk, and the exchange rate was moving
toward a stronger yen in weeks. This week, 105 yen to 106 yen is expected. From
now on, we need to focus on technical indicators, US market trends, currency
movements and foreign investor trends.
Last week's Nikkei average remained within
the expected range. The upper price was 290 yen below the assumed line, and the
lower price was 370 yen above the assumed line. The expected range of this
week's Nikkei average is expected to move between the Bollinger Band-1σ
(currently around 20510 yen) and the Lower is between Bollinger Band-3σ
(currently around 19510 yen).
