[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, due to the FOMC
results, the interest rate hike observation within the year was conscious and
the selling was dominant. In the medium to long term, there are fears of a
slowdown in the global economy due to confusion of US politics, raise rate by
FRB, the lack of creditworthiness of European banks and concerns about credit
contraction, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, and the
stagnation of crude oil prices. We need continued attention to the geopolitical
risk of the Middle East and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 2.60 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2018 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 19.1 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 14.3 and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2018 is 2.6% more than the OECD forecast (Japan
will downgrade or US will be revised upward) against the current Nikkei average
price, Or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in
equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 22.9 (the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 32350 yen) By the way, the Japanese market is
cheap about 12060 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2018 GDP
estimate (now + 0.98%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was negative.
The daily bar is on the 200 day line, and it is on the cloud of the ichimoku table.
Nasdaq weekly foot was negative. NASDAQ bar is on the 200-day line and on the
cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to Housing
related indicators, Quarterly financial results announcement , August durable
goods orders, September Chicago purchasing department Association economic
index. I would like to pay attention to whether NYDow is able to maintain the
clouds above the ichimoku table.
② The expected profit increase for the
Nikkei 225 hires will be +8.9% with the announcement of the 2nd quarter
financial results, which is 0.1 points worse than three months ago. In
addition, the growth rate forecast for the current term is + 5.5%, which is 2.8
points worse than three months ago.
③ Although the US long-term interest rate
was at the same level, the interest rate differential between Japan and the US
expanded from 2.20% to 2.25%, and the exchange rate moved from the 110 yen
level to 112 yen level. This week is estimated to be 111 yen range from the 113
yen range.
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2018
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 1.0% in Japan and + 2.4% in the US, so
the Japanese market is worse by 1.4 points on this aspect.
⑤ 1st week of September is a over selling.
there is a high possibility that the 2nd week of September is a over buying,
and this week we are forecasting to over buying.
③ was a bullish factor. It seems that ①,③,⑤ will be affected
this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical viewpoint of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 2.6 points
less expensive in the mid to long term (about 530 yen when calculating the
Nikkei average) and it is cheap. The ratio shrunk 2.6 points last week.
The Nikkei average in the cloud of the
ichimoku table. The total divergence rate was +9.5%, and which expanded positive
range. The 200 day moving average line deviation rate was +4.2%, and which expanded
positive range. Since 3 elements are positive, the "green light" is
on for the medium term trend. The Nikkei average is on the 25 day and the 9 day
moving average line, "green light "
is on for short-term trends.
In the US market NY Dow is on the 200 day
line and the 25 day line , 9 day line. It is on the cloud of the ichimoku
table. NASDAQ is on the 200 day average line and the 25 day average line, but
under the 9 day average line. It is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. In the
short term " yellow light" is on and in the medium term " green light"
is on.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, falling
high-yield bond market, financial market turmoil due to UK's withdrawal from
the EU, global long-term interest rate trends declined, etc. Concern is diminished.
However, there are fears concerning the global economic slowdown due to the US
interest rate hikes, uncertainty of US politics, Situation of North Korea, the
creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, the economic slowdown of emerging
economies such as China, the sluggish growth of US corporate earnings,
geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as risk factors It exists.
China's real estate prices are flat in big
cities, but the problem of bad loans in China such as excessive facilities has
not been resolved. If you rush up the process, it will lead to a short-term
market decline, and there is a concern that prolonged recession will prolong
the recession.
Also, the most recent LIBOR interest rate
has been updated for the past five years high and conscious of the possibility
of financial unrest.
On the other hand, as favorable material,
the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New
President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of
negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion
yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration
of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation. Negative
interest rates and purchase of government bonds are maintained for policy
interest rates by the ECB. However, the government bond purchase facility has
been gradually reduced from April 2017. EU
is also headed towards financial normality.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is upward trend in the medium-term, but no trend in the short term. The
Japanese market is upward trend in the medium-term, and in the short term.
When analyzing the exchange market last
week, long-term interest rates in the US rose, the long-term interest rate
differential between the US and Japan expanded, and the exchange rate was a
move toward the depreciation of the yen in the week. From now on, we need to
pay attention to technical indicators, US market trends, foreign exchange
movements and foreign investor's trends.
Last week's Nikkei average was almost
within the expected range. The upper price was about 50 yen higher in the
vicinity of the assumed line, but the lower price exceeded the assumed line by
about 270 yen. This week's Nikkei average is expected to move between the upper
price on Bollinger band +2σ(currently around 20320 yen) and the lower price on
the 25 day average line +200yen (around 19850 yen now).
