[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, the stock index
fell on alarm over the spread of pneumonia caused by the new coronavirus. In
the medium to long term, there are fears of a slowdown in the global economy
due to confusion of US politics, raise rate by FRB, European political turmoil
and the creditworthiness of European banks and credit crunch concerns, the
economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, and concern over the
global economic slowdown due to trade war. We need continued attention to the
geopolitical risk of the Middle East , Korean Peninsula and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 2.16 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2021 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 19.2 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 14.5 and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2020 is 2.1% more than the OECD forecast (Japan
will downgrade or US will be revised upward) against the current Nikkei average
price, or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in
equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 21.1 (the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 34650 yen) . In the medium to long term, the
Japanese market is low valued at about 10820 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2021 GDP
estimate (now +0.74%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was positive.
The daily bar is above the 200 day line, and it is above the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq weekly foot was positive. NASDAQ bar is above the 200-day line and
it is above the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying
attention to Housing related indicators, Quarterly financial results
announcement , Durable goods orders in December, preliminary GDP figures for
October-December. I would like to pay attention to whether NYDow can keep above
the 25th day line.
②The forecast ROE for Nikkei 225 stocks for
the current term is 8.1%, 0.7 points worse than the previous three months due
to the announcement of financial results for the April-June period. In
addition, the profit growth rate of the business forecast for the current term
is - 7.0%, 7.1 points worse than the
previous three months.
③The long-term interest rate in the United
States has declined, and the interest rate differential between the United
States and Japan has fallen from 1.83% to 1.71%, and the yen has moved upward
from 110 yen to 109 yen.
④ The real GDP growth rate forecast for
2021 in Japan and the United States of OECD was announced, Japan is expected to
be + 0.74%, and the United States is expected to be + 1.98%.
⑤ The 2nd week of January is a over buying.
there is a high possibility that the 3rd week of January is a over selling, and
this week we are forecasting to over selling.
last week, ①,③ were bearish factor. It seems that ①,②,③,⑤ will be affected this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical viewpoint of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 4.9
points lower than NASDAQ in the medium to long term. (It is about 1170 yen when
it is based on the Nikkei average) Proportions shrank compared to last week.
The Nikkei average is above the cloud of
the ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was +10.9%, and expanded to the positive
width compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate was
+8.1%, and expanded to the positive width compared to last week. Since the 3
elements ware positive, the "green signal" is lit in the medium term
trend. The Nikkei average is above the 25_day moving average line but under the
9_day moving average line, "yellow signal
" is lit for short-term trends.
In the US market NY Dow is above the 200_day
line and the 25_day line but under the 9_day line. It is above the cloud of
ichimoku table. NASDAQ is above the 200_day average line and the 25_day average
line but under the 9_day average line. It is above the cloud of the ichimoku
table. In the short term "yellow signal" is lit and in the medium
term " green signal" is lit.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as interest rate hikes in the United States, sluggish growth in
US corporate performance, financial market turmoil caused by credit slumps,
North Korea issues, falling crude oil prices and falling high yield bond
markets, global long-term interest rate decline trend are receding However,
US-China trade friction, US political uncertainty, lack of creditworthiness and
political situation of EU banks, global economic slowdown concern with trade
war, geopolitical risk of the Middle East and Ukraine Etc exist as a risk
factor.
Real estate prices in China are flat in
large cities, but the problems of nonperforming loans in China as a whole such
as excessive facilities have not been resolved. If you hurry up the process, it
will lead to a short-term market drop, and if you delay proceeding, there is
concern that the economic recession will be prolonged.
Although the recent LIBOR interest rate has
been on a downward trend, it has been rising for the past five years, implying
that global bad debt continues to increase, and is aware of the possibility of
a resurgence of financial uncertainty.
On the other hand, the following points can
be pointed out as favorable materials. US interest rate cut expectations,
policy expectation of President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the
Bank of Japan, introduction of negative interest rate and purchase of ETF of 80
trillion yen · 6 trillion yen ETF Clarification of the duration of interest
rate manipulation and monetary easing and ECB deepens negative interest rate
and resumes quantitative easing.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is upward trend in the medium-term, and upward trend in the short term.
The Japanese market is upward trend in the medium-term, and upward trend in the
short term.
Analysis of the foreign exchange market
last week showed that long-term interest rates in the United States have
fallen, the long-term interest rate gap between the United States and Japan has
narrowed, and the yen has appreciated during the week. This week is expected to
be between 108 yen and 109 yen. From now on, it is necessary to pay attention
to technical indicators, US market trends, exchange rate movements, and foreign
investor trends.
Last week, the Nikkei average was below the
expected range. The upside price was 180 yen below the assumed line, and the
downside was 70 yen below the assumed line. For the Nikkei 225 this week, the
upside is assumed to be Bollinger Band + 1σ (currently around 24040 yen), and
the downside is assumed to be Bollinger Band -1σ (currently around 23610 yen).
