[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, the settlement
of long-term interest rates and the VIX index improved investor psychology and
buying became dominant. In the medium to long term, there are fears of a
slowdown in the global economy due to confusion of US politics, raise rate by
FRB, the lack of creditworthiness of European banks and concerns about credit
contraction, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, and the
stagnation of crude oil prices. We need continued attention to the geopolitical
risk of the Middle East and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 3.61 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2019 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 17.5 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 13.0 and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2019 is 3.7% more than the OECD forecast (Japan
will downgrade or US will be revised upward) against the current Nikkei average
price, or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in
equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 24.5 (the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 41280 yen) . Because it is so, the Japanese
market is cheap about 19390 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2019 GDP
estimate (now + 0.96%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was positive.
The daily bar is above the 200 day line, and it is in the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq weekly foot was positive. NASDAQ bar is above the 200-day line and
above the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to
Housing related indicators, Quarterly financial results announcement , Durable
goods orders received in January, ISM manufacturing February index in February.
we would like to pay attention to whether NYDow can return on the 25th day line
② The expected profit increase for the
Nikkei 225 hires will be +9.5% with the announcement of the 4th quarter
financial results, which is 0.7points better than three months ago. In
addition, the growth rate forecast for this term is + 21.1%, 9.3 points better
than 3 months ago.
③ Long-term interest rates in the country rose
and the interest rate differential between Japan and the US expanded from 2.82%
to 2.83%, and the exchange rate changed from 105 yen to 107 yen, which was a stronger
yen movement. This week is estimated to be the 105 yen level to the 107 yen level.
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2019
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 1.0% in Japan and + 2.4% in the US, so
the Japanese market is worse by 1.1 points on this aspect.
⑤ 2nd week of February is a over selling. there
is a high possibility that the 3rd week of February is a over buying, and this
week we are forecasting to over buying.
last week ① was a bullish factor. It seems that ①,③,⑤ will be affected
this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical point of view of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 7.2
points in mid- to long-term (about 1580 yen when it is calculated by Nikkei
average), which is cheap. The price range has expanded compared to last week.
The Nikkei average under the cloud of the
ichimoku table. The total divergence rate was -3.2%, and which shrunk negative
range. The 200 day moving average line deviation rate was +3.6%, and which expanded
positive range. Since 2 elements are negative, the "yellow light" is
on for the medium term trend. The Nikkei average is under the 25 day moving
average line but above the 9 day moving average line, "yellow light " is on for
short-term trends.
In the US market NY Dow above the 200 day
line and the 9 day line but under the 25 day line. It is in the cloud of ichimoku
table. NASDAQ above the 200 day average line and the 25 day average line, and the
9 day average line. It is above the cloud of the ichimoku table. In the short
term "yellow light" is on and in the medium term "yellow light"
is on.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, financial
market turmoil due to UK's withdrawal from the EU, global long-term interest
rate trends declined, etc. Concern is diminished. However, there are fears
concerning the global economic slowdown due to the US interest rate hikes,
falling high-yield bond market, uncertainty of US politics, Situation of North
Korea, the creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, the economic slowdown of
emerging economies such as China, the sluggish growth of US corporate earnings,
geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as risk factors It exists.
Real estate prices in China are flat in
large cities, but the problems of nonperforming loans in China as a whole such
as excessive facilities have not been resolved. If you hurry up the process, it
will lead to a short-term market drop, and if you delay proceeding, there is
concern that the economic recession will be prolonged.
It also implies that the latest LIBOR
interest rate has continued to update the highs for the past five years, and
that the global nonperforming debt continues to increase, and the possibility
of financial unrest is revealed.
On the other hand, as favorable material,
the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New
President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of
negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion
yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration
of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation. Negative
interest rates and purchase of government bonds are maintained for policy
interest rates by the ECB. However, the government bond purchase facility has
been gradually reduced from April 2017. EU
is also headed towards financial normality.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is no trend in the medium-term, and no trend in the short term. The
Japanese market is no trend in the medium-term, and no trend the short term.
Analyzing the exchange market last week, the
long-term interest rate in the US rose and the long-term interest rate gap
between the US and Japan expanded, so the exchange rate was a move toward a weaker
yen in the week. From now on, we need to pay attention to technical indicators,
US market trends, foreign exchange movements and foreign investor's trends.
Last week's Nikkei average fell far short
of the expected range. The upper price under the assumed line by about 600 yen,
and the lower price under the assumed line by about 990 yen. This week's Nikkei
average is expected to move between the upper price near the 25 day average
line (currently around 22570 yen) and the lower price near the Bollinger band -1σ
(currently around 21580 yen ).
