[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, the elimination
of the position of the VIX index related derivatives spread to the actual
market and plummeted. In the medium to long term, there are fears of a slowdown
in the global economy due to confusion of US politics, raise rate by FRB, the
lack of creditworthiness of European banks and concerns about credit
contraction, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, and the
stagnation of crude oil prices. We need continued attention to the geopolitical
risk of the Middle East and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 3.07 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2019 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 16.4 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 13.2 and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2019 is 3.1% more than the OECD forecast (Japan
will downgrade or US will be revised upward) against the current Nikkei average
price, or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in
equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 22.1 (the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 35900 yen) By the way, the Japanese market is
cheap about 14510 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2019 GDP
estimate (now + 0.96%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was negative.
The daily bar is on the 200 day line, and it is under the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq weekly foot was negative. NASDAQ bar is on the 200-day line and in
the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to Housing
related indicators, Quarterly financial results announcement , Retail sales in
January, the NY Federal Bank economic index in February. I would like to pay
attention to whether NYDow is able to maintain above the 25 day moving average
line.
② The expected profit increase for the
Nikkei 225 hires will be +9.4% with the announcement of the 2nd quarter
financial results, which is 0.4 points better than three months ago. In
addition, the growth rate forecast for this term is + 21.5%, 8.7 points better
than 3 months ago.
③ Long-term interest rates in the country rose
and the interest rate differential between Japan and the US expanded from 2.77%
to 2.79%, and the exchange rate changed from 110 yen to 108 yen, which was a stronger
yen movement. This week is estimated to be the 108 yen level to the 110 yen level.
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2019
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 1.0% in Japan and + 2.4% in the US, so
the Japanese market is worse by 1.1 points on this aspect.
⑤ 5th week of January is a over selling. there
is a high possibility that the 1st week of January is a over selling, and this
week we are forecasting to over selling.
①,⑤ was a bearish factor.
It seems that ①,③,⑤ will be affected this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical point of view of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 2.8
points in mid- to long-term (about 600 yen when it is calculated by Nikkei
average), which is cheap. The price range has expanded compared to last week.
The Nikkei average under the cloud of the
ichimoku table. The total divergence rate was -12.7%, and which shrunk positive
range. The 200 day moving average line deviation rate was +1.8%, and which shrunk
positive range. Since 2 elements are negative, the "yellow light" is
on for the medium term trend. The Nikkei average is under the 25 day moving
average line and the 9 day moving average line,
"red light " is on for short-term trends.
In the US market NY Dow exceeds the 200 day
line but under the 25 day line and the 9 day line. It is under cloud of the
ichimoku table. NASDAQ exceeds the 200 day average line but under the 25 day
average line, and the 9 day average line. It is in the cloud of the ichimoku
table. In the short term "red light" is on and in the medium term
"yellow light" is on.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, financial
market turmoil due to UK's withdrawal from the EU, global long-term interest
rate trends declined, etc. Concern is diminished. However, there are fears
concerning the global economic slowdown due to the US interest rate hikes,
falling high-yield bond market, uncertainty of US politics, Situation of North
Korea, the creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, the economic slowdown of
emerging economies such as China, the sluggish growth of US corporate earnings,
geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as risk factors It exists.
China's real estate prices are flat in big
cities, but the problem of bad loans in China such as excessive facilities has
not been resolved. If you rush up the process, it will lead to a short-term
market decline, and there is a concern that prolonged recession will prolong
the recession.
It also implies that the latest LIBOR
interest rate has continued to update the highs for the past five years, and
that the global nonperforming debt continues to increase, and the possibility
of financial unrest is revealed.
On the other hand, as favorable material,
the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New
President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of
negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion
yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration
of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation. Negative
interest rates and purchase of government bonds are maintained for policy
interest rates by the ECB. However, the government bond purchase facility has
been gradually reduced from April 2017. EU
is also headed towards financial normality.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is no trend in the medium-term, and downward trend in the short term.
The Japanese market is no trend in the medium-term, and downward trend the
short term.
Analyzing the exchange market last week, the
long-term interest rate in the US rose and the long-term interest rate gap
between the US and Japan expanded, but the exchange rate was a move toward a stronger
yen in the week. From now on, we need to pay attention to technical indicators,
US market trends, foreign exchange movements and foreign investor's trends.
Last week's Nikkei average fell far short
of the expected range. The upper price under the assumed line by about 140 yen,
and the lower price under the assumed line by about 40 yen. This week's Nikkei
average is expected to move between the upper price near the Bollinger band -1σ
(currently around 22530 yen) and the lower price near the Bollinger band -3σ (currently
around 20930 yen ).
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