[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, buying power
was dominant by the mainstay high-tech stocks. In the medium to long term,
there are fears of a slowdown in the global economy due to the lack of
creditworthiness of European banks and concerns about credit contraction, the
economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the rate hike of the
Federal Reserve and the stagnation of crude oil prices, and We need continued
attention to the geopolitical risk of the Middle East and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 1.95 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2018 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 19.2 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 14.1,and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2018 is 1.7% more than the OECD forecast (Japan is
downgraded downwards or the US is upwardly modified) against the current Nikkei
average price, Or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be
in equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 19.3(the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 27100 yen) By the way, the Japanese market is
cheap about 7410 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2018 GDP
estimate (now + 0.83%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was positive.
The daily bar is on the 200 day line, and it is on the cloud of the ichimoku table.
Nasdaq weekly foot was positive. NASDAQ bar is on the 200-day line and the
cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to quarterly
financial results announcement, housing related indicators, The Chicago
Purchasing Department Association economic index in May, Employment Statistics
in May. I would like to pay attention to whether NYDow can keep above the
clouds of ichimoku table.
② The expected profit increase for the
Nikkei225 hires will be 8.9% with the announcement of the financial results along
with the announcement of the financial results for the Jan-Mar period, and it improved
by 0.8 points compared to 3 months ago. In addition, The growth rate for the
current business forecast is +8.1%, and It is the same level as 3 months ago.
③ Long-term interest rates in the US has
risen, the interest rate differential between Japan and the US expanded from 2.30
to 2.20%, and the exchange rate moved from the 110 yen level to 113 yen level. This
week is estimated to be 109 yen range from 112 yen range.
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2018
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.8% in Japan and + 3.0% in the US, so
the Japanese market is worse by 2.2 points on this aspect.
⑤3rd week of May is a over buying. there
is a high possibility that the 4th week of May is a over buying, and this week we are
forecasting to over buying.
①,⑤ was bullish factor.
It seems that ①,②,③,⑤ will be affected this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical viewpoint of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 3.8 points
less expensive in the mid to long term (about 750 yen when calculating the
Nikkei average) and it is cheap. The ratio was expanded 1.8 points.
The Nikkei average on the cloud of the
ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was +10.9%, and the positive range shrunk
compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate was + 7.5%,
and the positive range shrunk compared to last week. Since the 3 elements are positive,
the "green light" is on for the medium term trend. The Nikkei average
is on the 25 day line but under the 9 day line,
"yellow light " is on for short-term trends.
In the US market NY Dow is on the 200 day
line and on the 25 day and on the 9 day line . It is on the cloud of the
ichimoku table. NASDAQ is on the 200 day and on the 25 day and on the 9 day
line. It is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. In the short term " green "
is on and in the medium term green light" is on.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, falling
high-yield bond market, financial market turmoil due to UK's withdrawal from
the EU, global long-term interest rate trends declined, etc. Concern is diminished.
However, there are fears concerning the global economic slowdown due to the US
interest rate hikes, the creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, the
economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the sluggish growth of
US corporate earnings, geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as
risk factors It exists.
China's real estate prices are flat in big
cities, but the problem of bad loans in China such as excessive facilities has
not been resolved. If you rush up the process, it will lead to a short-term
market decline, and there is a concern that prolonged recession will prolong
the recession.
Also, the most recent LIBOR interest rate
has been updated for the past five years high and conscious of the possibility
of financial unrest.
On the other hand, as favorable material,
the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New
President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of
negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion
yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration
of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation. Negative
interest rates and purchase of government bonds are maintained for policy
interest rates by the ECB. However, the government bond buy-out frame will be
reduced from EUR 80 billion to EUR 60 billion in April 2017.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is rising trend in the medium-term, and rising trend in the short term.
The Japanese market is rising trend in the medium-term, and no trend in the
short term.
Analyzing the exchange market last week,
Long-term interest rates in the US rose and the long-term interest rate gap
between the US and Japan expanded, so the exchange rate became a weak yen
movement in the week. From now on, we need to pay attention to technical
indicators, US market trends, foreign exchange movements and foreign investor's
trends.
Last week's Nikkei average was a movement
within the assumed range. The upper price was lower than the assumed line by
about 200 yen, and the lower price was upper than the assumed line by 420 yen. This
week's Nikkei average is expected to move between upper price is Bollinger band
+1σ (the current price is around 19930 yen) and the lower price is 25 day
average line (the current price is around 19470 yen ).
