Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [16-May-2021]

 [Present state recognition of fundamental]

In the U.S. market last week, stock indices declined due to warnings of accelerating inflation and higher interest rates ahead due to economic recovery. On the other hand, in the medium to long term, there are concerns about inflation due to side effects of excess liquidity, and concerns about lack of creditworthiness of banks and credit crunch due to defaults by funds and other institutions. There are also concerns about the collapse of China's real estate bubble and economic slowdown, as well as concerns about a global economic slowdown due to trade wars and other factors. Furthermore, geopolitical risks in East Asia, the Middle East, and Ukraine continue to require attention.

 

The difference in the yield spread between the Japanese and U.S. markets is that the Japanese market is 2.28 points cheaper than the U.S. market, considering the announced OECD nominal GDP forecast for 2021. The reason for the undervaluation is the difference between the S&P 500's PER of 22.6 and the Nikkei 225's expected PER of 14.7 for the current fiscal year, as well as the difference in interest rates and GDP growth between the U.S. and Japan.

This means that if the GDP growth rate difference between Japan and the U.S. in 2021 expands by another 2.28 percentage points compared to the OECD forecast (Japan is revised downward or the U.S. is revised upward), or if the PER of the Nikkei 225 stocks for the current fiscal year is about 22.2, or if the Nikkei 225 is about 42,290 yen compared to the current price of the Nikkei 225. The Japanese market is undervalued by about 14200 yen in the medium to long term.

 

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

① Rising US market

② UP of expected profit increase rate for the current term more than before

③ Expansion of the interest rate differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2021 GDP estimate (now +2.72%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

 

Looking at recent movements

①    Last week's NYDow weekly trend was negative. The daily footstep is above the 200-day line and the clouds of the Ichimoku kinko table. NASDAQ weekly trend was negative. The daily footstep is above the 200-day line and above the clouds of the Ichimoku kinko table. It will be interesting to see if NYDow can keep above the 25-day line.

②    As a result of the announcement of the quarterly financial results, the expected ROE of the Nikkei 225 stocks was 8.4%, an improvement of 3.0 points from three months ago. In addition, the profit growth rate was +22.9%, an improvement of 31.9% points from three months ago.

③    Long-term interest rates in the U.S. rose, widening the interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S. from 1.50 to 1.55, and the yen moved in the direction of depreciation from the 108-yen to 109-yen range.

④    The OECD's nominal GDP growth forecast for Japan and the U.S. for 2021 has been revised, and Japan is expected to be +2.72% and the U.S. +4.35%, so the Japanese market is 1.63 percentage points inferior in this aspect.

⑤    The first week of May was overbought, the second week of May was likely oversold, and this week is expected to be overbought. Last week, of the five points, ① was bearish. This week, ①②③⑤ are expected to have an impact.

 

[Technical viewpoint]

Looking at the Japanese market from a technical perspective, it is undervalued by 0.6 points (about 170 yen in terms of the Nikkei 225) over the medium to long term in terms of the 200-day divergence from the NASDAQ. It is now undervalued. On the other hand, the stock is undervalued by 6.7 points (about 1,880 yen in terms of the Nikkei 225) over the medium to long term in terms of the 200-day divergence from NYDow.

 

The Nikkei 225 is under the clouds in the Ichimoku Kinko table. The total deviation rate was -1.1%, which has changed negative width compared to last week. The 200-day moving average deviation rate was +6.5 which has shrank positive width. As the two factors are negative, the "yellow light" is lit in the medium term trend.

The Nikkei 225 is under the 25 day line and 9 day line. The "red light" is lit in short-term trends.

 

In the US market, NY Dow is above the 200 day line and the 25 day line and the 9 day line. It is above the clouds in the Ichimoku Kinko table. Nasdaq is above the 200 day line but under the 25 day line and the 9 day line. It is above the clouds of the Ichimoku Kinko table.

In the short term, the "yellow light" is lit, and in the medium term, the "green light" is lit.

 

[Outlook for this week]

Looking at the U.S. market from a fundamental perspective, concerns about the U.S. interest rate hike, the U.S.-China trade friction, and the North Korea issue have receded, but risk factors include the upward trend in long-term interest rates, rising oil prices, falling high yield bond markets, financial market turmoil due to the credit crunch, lack of creditworthiness of banks in the EU and the political situation, concerns about a global economic slowdown due to trade wars, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East and East Asia.

 

The latest LIBOR rates are calm and there is no sign of financial instability. In March 2020, the LIBOR rate rose despite a decline in short-term interest rates, raising awareness of the possibility of renewed financial instability.

 

On the other hand, favorable factors include the zero interest rate policy in the U.S. and the Fed's direct financial support to corporations including junk bond purchases and $2 trillion in economic stimulus. In addition to the Bank of Japan's monetary easing measures, such as setting a 2% inflation target, introducing negative interest rates and unlimited purchases of JGBs and ETFs ranging from 0 to 12 trillion yen, the Japanese government's economic measures exceeding those taken during the Lehman Shock, the EU's establishment of a 92 trillion yen Corona Recovery Fund, and the ECB's announcement of deepening negative interest rates and expanding quantitative easing.

 

Looking at the technical aspect, the US market is upward trend in the medium term　and no trend in the short term. The Japanese market is no trend in the medium term and downward trend in the short term.

 

Analysis of the currency markets shows that the yen was moving gently higher in 2020, but has rapidly weakened since the start of 2021, but has been struggling for the past five weeks. However, it has been struggling for the past five weeks. We expect the yen to be in the ¥108 to ¥109 range this week.

 

This week, the Fed and RBA will release the minutes of their policy meetings, and China's central bank will hold its interest rate meeting. On the economic data front, preliminary PMI readings from the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia will tell us about the state of the global economy. Other important releases include housing starts in the US, inflation data and retail sales in the UK, Q1 GDP updates in Japan and the Eurozone, and industrial production in China.

 

Last week's Nikkei 225 was well below the expected range. The upper price was about 440 yen below the assumed line and the lower price was about 1,860 yen below the assumed line. The expected range for the Nikkei 225 this week is between the Bollinger Band +1σ (currently around JPY 29770) on the upside and the Bollinger Band -2σ (currently around JPY 27970) on the downside.