[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, the high price
of crude oil and the consumer price index in April fell short of market
expectations became the factor that caused the stock price to rise. In the
medium to long term, there are fears of a slowdown in the global economy due to
confusion of US politics, raise rate by FRB, the lack of creditworthiness of
European banks and concerns about credit contraction, the economic slowdown of
emerging economies such as China, and concern over the global economic slowdown
due to trade war. We need continued attention to the geopolitical risk of the Middle
East , Korean Peninsula and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 3.17 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2019 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 17.1 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 13.7 and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2019 is 3.4% more than the OECD forecast (Japan
will downgrade or US will be revised upward) against the current Nikkei average
price, or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in
equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 24.3 (the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 40310 yen) . Because it is so, the Japanese
market is cheap about 17550 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2019 GDP
estimate (now + 0.96%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was positive.
The daily bar is above the 200 day line, but it is in the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq weekly foot was positive. NASDAQ bar is above the 200-day line and
above the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to
Housing related indicators, Quarterly financial results announcement , Retail
sales in April, Industrial Production Index in April. we would like to pay
attention to whether NYDow goes above the cloud of the ichimoku table.
② The expected profit increase for the
Nikkei 225 hires will be +9.2% with the announcement of the 1st quarter
financial results. It has deteriorated by 0.1 points compared with 3 months ago.
In addition, the growth rate forecast for this term is + 0.6%. It has
deteriorated by16.6 points compared with 3 months ago
③ Long-term interest rates in the US rose,
the difference in interest rates between Japan and the US has expanded from
2.91 to 2.94%, and the exchange was a move from 108 yen range to 110 yen range.
This week is estimated to be the 108 yen level to the 110 yen level.
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2019
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 1.0% in Japan and + 2.4% in the US, so
the Japanese market is worse by 1.1 points on this aspect.
⑤ 4th week of April is a over buying. there
is a high possibility that the 1st week of May is a over buying, and this week
we are forecasting to over buying.
last week ①,③,⑤ was a bullish
factor. It seems that ①,③,⑤ will be affected this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical point of view of the
Japanese market, the 200-day discrepancy rate with Nasdaq is 2.0 points in the
medium to long term (about 460 yen when calculated by the Nikkei average),
which is less expensive. The difference has expanded compared to last
week.
The Nikkei average above the cloud of the
ichimoku table. The total divergence rate was +11.8%, and which has expanded positive
range. The 200 day moving average line deviation rate was +5.4%, and which has expanded
positive range. Since 3 elements are positive, the "green light" is
on for the medium term trend. The Nikkei average is above the 25 day moving
average line and the 9 day moving average line,
"green light " is on for short-term trends.
In the US market NY Dow above the 200 day
line and the 25 day line and the 9 day line. It is in the cloud of ichimoku
table. NASDAQ above the 200 day average line and the 25 day average line and the
9 day average line. It is above the cloud of the ichimoku table. In the short
term "green light" is on and in the medium term "yellow light"
is on.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, financial
market turmoil due to UK's withdrawal from the EU, global long-term interest
rate trends declined, Situation of North Korea, falling high-yield bond market,
etc. Concern is diminished. However, there are fears concerning the global
economic slowdown due to the US interest rate hikes, uncertainty of US politics,
the creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, Concerns over the economic
slowdown of emerging economies such as China and the global economic slowdown
due to trade war, geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as risk
factors It exists.
Real estate prices in China are flat in
large cities, but the problems of nonperforming loans in China as a whole such
as excessive facilities have not been resolved. If you hurry up the process, it
will lead to a short-term market drop, and if you delay proceeding, there is
concern that the economic recession will be prolonged.
It also implies that the latest LIBOR
interest rate has continued to update the highs for the past five years, and
that the global nonperforming debt continues to increase, and the possibility
of financial unrest is revealed.
On the other hand, as favorable material,
the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New
President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of
negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion
yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration
of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation. Negative
interest rates and purchase of government bonds are maintained for policy
interest rates by the ECB. However, the government bond purchase facility has
been gradually reduced from April 2017. EU
is also headed towards financial normality.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is no trend in the medium-term, and upward trend in the short term. The
Japanese market is upward trend in the medium-term, and upward trend the short
term.
When analyzing the exchange market last
week, the long-term interest rate in the US rose, the long-term interest rate
gap between the US and Japan has expanded, the exchange rate was weaker yen
movement in the week. From now on, we need to pay attention to technical
indicators, US market trends, foreign exchange movements and foreign investor's
trends.
Last week's Nikkei average moved within the
assumed range. The upper price was lower than the assumed line by about 70 yen,
and the lower price exceeded the assumed line by about 380 yen. This week's
Nikkei average is expected to move between the upper price near the Bollinger
band +2σ (currently around 22840 yen) and the lower price near the 25 day
average (currently around 22090 yen ).
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