Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [21 September 2025]

 [Fundamental viewpoint]

Last week in the US markets, the Federal Reserve's resumption of interest rate cuts was well received, leading to weekly gains in stock indices.

Weekly percentage change: NY Dow: +1.05%, NASDAQ: +2.21%, S&P 500: +1.22%.

                                                                                                 

On the other hand, medium- to long-term risks include concerns about a prolonged conflict in Ukraine, tariff policies of the U.S. administration, financial instability and global economic slowdown due to rising interest rates, and the collapse of the real estate bubble and economic slowdown in China. This also raises concerns about the arrival of stagflation. Furthermore, geopolitical risks in East Asia and the Middle East continue to require attention..

The difference in the yield spread between the Japanese and U.S. markets is 2.02 points undervalued for the Japanese market when the OECD's nominal GDP forecast for 2026 is taken into account. The reason for the undervaluation is the difference between the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 23.7 and the Nikkei 225's P/E ratio of 18.2 the difference between the U.S. and Japanese interest rates, and the difference in GDP growth rates.

In order for the U.S. and Japanese markets to be in equilibrium, the following conditions must be met.

The difference in GDP growth between Japan and the U.S. in 2026 relative to the current price of the Nikkei 225 will be 2.02 percentage points larger than the OECD forecast. (Japan is revised downward or the U.S. is revised upward). Or the current year's forecast PER for stocks in the Nikkei Stock Average becomes about 28.4 Or, the Nikkei 225 will be around 70,820 yen.

As a result, the Japanese market is undervalued by about 25,770 yen in the medium to long term.

 

Fundamentally speaking, the Japanese market is arguably less attractive than the US market by around ¥25,770. Last week, the weakness in the Japanese market intensified. The weakness in the Japanese market has diminished.

 

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

①    Rising US market

②　Increase in profit forecast for the current fiscal year above the previous year's level

③ Further depreciation of the yen due to the widening interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S.

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2025 GDP estimate (now +3.3%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

 

Looking at recent movements

①    The weekly leg of the NYDow was positive last week. The daily is above the 200-day line and above the clouds on the Ichimoku Chart. The weekly leg of the NASDAQ was positive. The daily is above the 200-day line and above the clouds on the Ichimoku Chart. This week, the focus will be on whether the NY Dow can keep above the 25-day line.

②    As a result of the financial results announcement, the ROE forecast for Nikkei 225 stocks was +8.9%. This is a deterioration of 0.2 percentage points compared to three months ago. Profit growth was -6.5%. This is a deterioration of 2.6 percentage points compared to three months ago.

③    US long-term interest rates rose, widening the interest rate differential between Japan and the US from 2.48 to 2.50. Consequently, the dollar-yen exchange rate moved slightly towards yen depreciation, fluctuating within the range of 145 to 148 yen per dollar. The dollar index rose by +0.03% over the week.

④    The OECD's nominal GDP growth rate for Japan and the U.S. in 2026 is expected to be +2.5% for Japan and +4.3% for the U.S., so the Japanese market is 1.8 percentage points inferior in this aspect.

⑤    The second week of September saw net selling, the third week likely saw net selling, and net selling is anticipated this week. Last week, out of the five points, ① was the bullish factor.

 

[Technical viewpoint]

From a technical perspective, the Japanese market is undervalued by 0.4 percentage points (equivalent to approximately ¥180 for the Nikkei average) relative to the NASDAQ's 200-day moving average deviation rate on a medium-to-long-term basis. Conversely, it is overvalued by 8.4 percentage points (equivalent to approximately ¥3,780 for the Nikkei average) relative to the NY Dow's 200-day moving average deviation rate over the same timeframe.

 

The Japanese market is stronger than the Dow Jones Industrial Average but weaker than the NASDAQ. The VIX, an indicator of volatility in the US market, rose to 15.5 over the week. The Nikkei VI fell to 24.1 over the week. The US market is optimistic, while the Japanese market is in a state of “mood of suspicion”.

 

The Nikkei 225 is above the 9-day line and the 25-day line. The short-term trend is now showing a “green signal.

The Nikkei 225 is above the Ichimoku Kinko's Kumo (equilibrium) cloud. The overall divergence was +29.4%, while the 200-day moving average divergence was +15.7%. As all three factors are positive, the medium-term trend has a "green light".

 

In the US market, the NY Dow is above the 9-day line and 25-day and 200-day lines. It is above the clouds of the Ichimoku chart.

The NASDAQ is above the 9-day line and 25-day and 200-day lines. It is above the clouds above the Ichimoku Chart.

It is a ‘green light’ in the short term and a ‘green light’ in the medium term.

 

[Outlook for this week]

Looking at the US market from a fundamental perspective, concerns about an economic downturn remain in the short term. Other risk factors include inflation and rising interest rates due to the Russia-Ukraine war, recession due to energy shortages and deteriorating political conditions in the EU bloc, US-China trade friction, financial market turmoil caused by the bursting of China's property bubble and credit crunch, and expanding geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

 

Looking at the technical aspects, the U.S. market is in a medium-term up trend and a short-term up trend. The Japanese market is in a medium-term up trend, and the short-term is up trend.

 

Analysis of the foreign exchange market shows that the yen has turned stronger since topping out at 156 yen, which was reached in January 2025. This week, the yen is expected to be between 146 and 148 yen.

 

n the US market this week, attention will remain focused on the global interest rate outlook, with key speeches by FOMC members, including Chairman Powell, on the Fed's recent rate cut. Economic indicators to be released include the August personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator, final GDP figures for the April-June period, durable goods orders, PMI indices, current account balance, and new home sales. Globally, attention will focus on the PMI for Japan, the UK, Germany, France and the eurozone as a whole, as well as China's monetary policy.

 

Last week, the Nikkei average traded within the anticipated range. The upper limit fell short by ¥330, while the lower limit exceeded it by ¥150.

This week, the Nikkei average is expected to move within a range defined by the upper limit at the Bollinger Band +2σ (currently around ¥45,320) and the lower limit at the 25-day moving average (currently around ¥43,370).

             

This week's shift in momentum for the Nikkei average will provide an opportunity to gauge the market's assessment of the Bank of Japan's decision to sell ETFs.