Nikkei average forecast

2026年9月27日日曜日

Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [27 September 2026]

[Fundamental viewpoint]

In the U.S. markets last week, crude oil futures fell on expectations that the situation in Iran was improving, and stock indices ended the week mixed.

Weekly percentage change: Dow Jones: +0.28%, NASDAQ: +2.06%, S&P 500: +1.21%

On the other hand, medium- to long-term risks include concerns over military conflicts in the Middle East and the protracted conflict in Ukraine; financial instability caused by inflation and rising interest rates driven by high crude oil prices, along with concerns about a global economic slowdown; and concerns over a real estate bubble burst and an economic slowdown in China. Furthermore, these factors have raised concerns about the onset of stagflation. In addition, continued vigilance is required regarding geopolitical risks in Latin America and East Asia..

Considering the OECD’s nominal GDP forecasts for 2026, the yield spread between the Japanese and U.S. markets indicates that the Japanese market is overvalued by 0.04 points. This overvaluation stems from the difference between the S&P 500’s P/E ratio of 19.9 and the projected P/E ratio of 17.3 for the constituent stocks of the Nikkei 225 for the current fiscal year, as well as the interest rate differential and the difference in GDP growth rates between Japan and the U.S.

For the Japanese and U.S. markets to reach equilibrium, the following conditions must be met:

Compared to the current Nikkei 225 price, the difference in GDP growth rates between Japan and the U.S. in 2026 must widen by 0.04 percentage points relative to the OECD forecast (either Japan’s forecast must be revised downward or the U.S.’s must be revised upward). Alternatively, the projected P/E ratio for the current fiscal year for Nikkei 225 constituent stocks must reach approximately 17.2. Or, the Nikkei 225 must reach approximately 65,920 yen.

Consequently, the Japanese market is overvalued by about 440 yen in the medium to long term.

From a fundamental perspective, the Japanese market could be considered slightly more attractive than the U.S. market. Last week, the Japanese market shifted into overvalued territory..

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

① Rising US market

②　Increase in profit forecast for the current fiscal year above the previous year's level

③ Further depreciation of the yen due to the widening interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S.

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2026 GDP estimate (now +2.9%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

Looking at recent movements

① The weekly leg of the NYDow was positive last week. The daily is above the 200-day line and under the clouds on the Ichimoku Chart. The weekly leg of the NASDAQ was positive. The daily is a above the 200-day line and the clouds on the Ichimoku Chart. This week, the focus will be on whether the NYDow can return above the 25-day line.

② Following the release of earnings results, the projected ROE for Nikkei 225 constituent stocks stood at +11.0%. This represents an improvement of +0.3 percentage points compared to three months ago. The profit growth rate was +17.9%, marking an improvement of +8.4 percentage points compared to three months ago.

③ Although U.S. long-term interest rates rose and the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. widened from 2.05 to 2.11, the dollar-yen exchange rate moved in the direction of yen weakness, ranging from the 156-yen level to the 159-yen level. The Dollar Index rose 0.82% for the week.

④ The OECD's nominal GDP growth rate for Japan and the U.S. in 2026 is expected to be +2.9% for Japan and +5.8% for the U.S., so the Japanese market is 2.9 percentage points inferior in this aspect.

⑤ It is highly likely that there was a net buying position in the third and fourth weeks of September, and a net buying position is expected this week. Last week, out of the five points, points ① and ③ were bullish factors.

[Technical viewpoint]

From a technical perspective, the Japanese market is overvalued by 1.2 percentage points (equivalent to about 800 yen for the Nikkei 225) relative to the NASDAQ based on the 200-day moving average deviation ratio over the medium to long term. Meanwhile, the Japanese market is overvalued by 7.7 percentage points (equivalent to about 5,110 yen for the Nikkei 225) relative to the NY Dow based on the 200-day moving average deviation ratio over the medium to long term.

The Japanese market is performing better than the Dow Jones and NASDAQ. The VIX, an indicator of volatility in the U.S. market, fell to 14.9 for the week. The Nikkei VI fell to 20.3 for the week. The U.S. market is in an “optimistic” state, while the Japanese market is in a “slightly fearful” state.

The Nikkei 225 is trading above both its 9-day and 25-day moving averages. A “green light” is flashing for the short-term trend.

The Nikkei 225 is trading within the “Cloud” in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart. The overall deviation rate stands at +12.1%, while the deviation rate from the 200-day moving average is +10.8%. Since both factors are positive, a “yellow light” is flashing for the medium-term trend.

In the US market, the NY Dow is above the 9-day line and below 25-day and above 200-day lines. It is under the clouds of the Ichimoku chart.

The NASDAQ is above the 9-day line and above 25-day and 200-day lines. It is above the clouds the Ichimoku Chart.

The U.S. market is showing a “yellow light” in the short term and a “yellow light” in the medium term.

[Outlook for this week]

In the U.S. market, concerns about an economic downturn driven by rising long-term interest rates—a result of the prolonged conflict in the Middle East—and high oil prices are likely to be the primary focus for the time being.

Looking at the technical aspects, the U.S. market is in a medium-term no trend and a short-term no trend. The Japanese market is in a medium-term no trend, and the short-term is up trend.

An analysis of the foreign exchange market shows that the yen has begun to strengthen, peaking at 163 yen in July 2026. This week, the exchange rate is expected to range from the 158-yen level to the 155-yen level.

In the U.S. markets this week, attention will be focused on the outcome of the diplomatic agreement between the U.S., Iran, and the GCC countries. On the economic front, the spotlight will be on the September employment report and the JOLTS job openings data. In addition, the ISM PMI and the PCE price index will be released. Globally, data on the eurozone’s inflation and unemployment rates, China’s PMI, Japan’s industrial production and retail sales, and the Bank of Japan’s “Tankan” survey will be released..

Last week, the Nikkei 225 closed above the projected range. The high was about 180 yen higher than the upper limit of the range, and the low was about 1,110 yen higher than the lower limit.

This week, the Nikkei 225 is expected to trade within a range defined by the upper limit at the +2σ Bollinger Band (currently around 67,180 yen) and the lower limit at the 25-day moving average (currently 65,270 yen)..

This week, the Nikkei Average is likely to serve as a litmus test heading into year-end, as investors watch to see if it can break out of its weekly triangle consolidation pattern.

2026年9月13日日曜日

Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [13 September 2026]

[Fundamental viewpoint]

Last week, as tensions in the Middle East escalated further, crude oil futures and long-term interest rates rose, causing stock indices to decline for the week.

Weekly percentage change: NY Dow: -1.57%, NASDAQ: -0.66%, S&P 500: -0.80%

Considering the OECD’s nominal GDP forecasts for 2026, the Japanese market is undervalued by 0.12 points relative to the U.S. market. The factors contributing to this overvaluation include the difference between the S&P 500’s P/E ratio of 20.3 and the projected P/E ratio of 16.8 for the Nikkei 225 constituent stocks for the current fiscal year, as well as the interest rate differential and the difference in GDP growth rates between Japan and the U.S.

For the Japanese and U.S. markets to reach equilibrium, the following conditions must be met:

Compared to the current Nikkei 225 price, the difference in GDP growth rates between Japan and the U.S. in 2026 must narrow by an additional 0.12 percentage points compared to the OECD forecast (either Japan’s forecast must be revised upward or the U.S.’s must be revised downward). Alternatively, the projected P/E ratio for the current fiscal year for Nikkei 225 constituent stocks must reach approximately 17.13. Or, the Nikkei 225 must reach approximately 65,340 yen.

Consequently, the Japanese market is undervalued by about 1,330 yen in the medium to long term.

From a fundamental perspective, one could say that the Japanese market is slightly less attractive than the U.S. market. Last week, the Japanese market became undervalued.

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

① Rising US market

②　Increase in profit forecast for the current fiscal year above the previous year's level

③ Further depreciation of the yen due to the widening interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S.

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2026 GDP estimate (now +2.9%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

Looking at recent movements

① The weekly leg of the NYDow was negative last week. The daily is above the 200-day line and within the clouds on the Ichimoku Chart. The weekly leg of the NASDAQ was negative. The daily is a above the 200-day line and the clouds on the Ichimoku Chart. This week, the focus will be on whether the NYDow can return above the 25-day line.

③ Although U.S. long-term interest rates rose and the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. widened from 1.88 to 2.00, the dollar-yen exchange rate moved in the direction of yen appreciation, falling from the 156-yen range to the 152-yen range. The Dollar Index fell by 0.07% for the week.

⑤ Net buying was recorded in the first week of September. It is highly likely that net selling occurred in the second week of September, and net selling is expected this week. Last week, out of the five points, points ① and ③ were bearish factors.

[Technical viewpoint]

From a technical perspective, the Japanese market is overvalued by 0.5 percentage points (equivalent to about 320 yen for the Nikkei 225) relative to the NASDAQ based on the 200-day moving average deviation ratio over the medium to long term. Meanwhile, the Japanese market is overvalued by 2.9 percentage points (equivalent to about 1,860 yen for the Nikkei 225) relative to the NY Dow based on the 200-day moving average deviation ratio over the medium to long term.

The Japanese market is performing better than the Dow Jones and NASDAQ. The VIX, an indicator of volatility in the U.S. market, rose to 15.9 for the week. The Nikkei VI rose to 29.8 for the week. The U.S. market is in a state of “optimism,” while the Japanese market is in a state of “fear.”

The Nikkei 225 is trading below both its 9-day and 25-day moving averages. A “red light” is flashing for the short-term trend.

The Nikkei 225 is trading below the “Cloud” in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart. The overall deviation rate stands at +0.4%, while the deviation rate from the 200-day moving average is +7.9%. Since both factors are positive, a “yellow light” is flashing for the medium-term trend.

In the US market, the NY Dow is below the 9-day line and 25-day and above 200-day lines. It is within the clouds of the Ichimoku chart.

The NASDAQ is below the 9-day line and above 25-day and above 200-day lines. It is above the clouds the Ichimoku Chart.

The U.S. market is showing a “red light” in the short term and a “yellow light” in the medium term.

[Outlook for this week]

Looking at the technical aspects, the U.S. market is in a medium-term no trend and a short-term down trend. The Japanese market is in a medium-term no trend, and the short-term is down trend.

An analysis of the foreign exchange market shows that the yen has begun to strengthen, peaking at 163 yen in July 2026. This week, the exchange rate is expected to range from the 152-yen level to the 155-yen level.

In the U.S. markets this week, the prospect of constructive dialogue between the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) and Iran regarding tanker navigation temporarily halted the sharp rise in crude oil prices, but attention remains focused on how the situation will unfold. Additionally, as the Federal Reserve decides on interest rates, the impact on borrowing costs is also drawing attention. On the economic front, retail sales and industrial production figures will be released. Globally, monetary policy announcements from the UK and Japan are expected, along with the release of UK inflation data and retail sales figures, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, and data on industrial production, retail sales, the unemployment rate, and housing prices in the eurozone and China.

Last week, the Nikkei 225 traded largely within the expected range. The high was about 580 yen above the range, and the low was about 350 yen below it.

This week, the Nikkei 225 is expected to trade within a range defined by the 25-day moving average (currently around 64,310 yen) on the upside and the -2σ Bollinger Band (currently 63,560 yen) on the downside.

The Nikkei Average is likely to remain weak this week as well, depending on crude oil prices—which are influenced by the situation in the Middle East—and movements in U.S. long-term interest rates.

2026年9月6日日曜日

Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [6 September 2026]

[Fundamental viewpoint]

In the U.S. markets last week, stock indices posted mixed weekly results amid conflicting speculation over whether the FOMC would raise interest rates at its September meeting.

Weekly percentage change: Dow Jones: -0.27%, NASDAQ: +0.40%, S&P 500: +0.09%

Considering the OECD’s nominal GDP forecasts for 2026, the yield spread between the Japanese and U.S. markets indicates that the Japanese market is overvalued by 0.01 percentage points. This overvaluation stems from the difference between the S&P 500’s P/E ratio of 21.2 and the projected P/E ratio of 17.4 for the constituent stocks of the Nikkei 225 for the current fiscal year, as well as the interest rate differential and the difference in GDP growth rates between Japan and the U.S.

For the Japanese and U.S. markets to reach equilibrium, the following conditions must be met:

Compared to the current Nikkei 225 price, the difference in GDP growth rates between Japan and the U.S. in 2026 must narrow by an additional 0.01 percentage points compared to the OECD forecast (either Japan’s forecast must be revised downward or the U.S.’s must be revised upward). Alternatively, the projected P/E ratio for the current fiscal year for Nikkei 225 constituent stocks must reach approximately 17.44. Or, the Nikkei 225 must reach approximately 65,160 yen.

Consequently, the Japanese market is overvalued by about 140 yen in the medium to long term.

From a fundamental perspective, the Japanese market could be considered slightly more attractive than the U.S. market. Last week, the Japanese market shifted into overvalued territory.

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

① Rising US market

②　Increase in profit forecast for the current fiscal year above the previous year's level

③ Further depreciation of the yen due to the widening interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S.

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2026 GDP estimate (now +2.9%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

Looking at recent movements

① The weekly leg of the NYDow was negative last week. The daily is above the 200-day line and the clouds on the Ichimoku Chart. The weekly leg of the NASDAQ was positive. The daily is a above the 200-day line and the clouds on the Ichimoku Chart. This week, the focus will be on whether the NYDow can return above the 25-day line.

② Following the release of earnings results, the projected ROE for Nikkei 225 constituent stocks stood at +11.0%. This represents an improvement of +0.3 percentage points compared to three months ago. The profit growth rate was +17.8%, marking an improvement of +8.2 percentage points compared to three months ago.

③ Although U.S. long-term interest rates rose and the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. widened from 1.81 to 1.88, the dollar-yen exchange rate moved in the direction of yen appreciation, falling from the 160-yen range to the 155-yen range. The Dollar Index fell 0.52% for the week.

⑤ The fourth week of August saw a net sell position. It is highly likely that the first week of September also saw a net sell position, and a net sell position is expected this week. Last week, out of the five factors, factor ③ was a bearish factor. This week, factors ①, ②, ③, and ⑤ are expected to have an impact.

[Technical viewpoint]

From a technical perspective, the Japanese market is overvalued by 1.8 percentage points (equivalent to approximately 1,170 yen when calculated based on the Nikkei 225) relative to the NASDAQ, as measured by the difference in 200-day moving average deviations. Meanwhile, the Japanese market is overvalued by 3.3 percentage points (equivalent to approximately 2,150 yen when calculated based on the Nikkei 225) relative to the NY Dow, as measured by the difference in 200-day moving average deviations.

The Japanese market is performing better than the Dow Jones and NASDAQ. The VIX, an indicator of volatility in the U.S. market, rose slightly to 14.5 for the week. The Nikkei VI rose to 27.2 for the week. The U.S. market is in an “optimistic” state, while the Japanese market is in a “slightly fearful” state.

The Nikkei 225 is trading below both its 9-day and 25-day moving averages. A “red light” is flashing for the short-term trend.

The Nikkei 225 is trading below the “Cloud” in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart. The overall deviation rate stands at +6.1%, while the deviation rate from the 200-day moving average is +10.2%. Since both factors are positive, a “yellow light” is flashing for the medium-term trend.

In the US market, the NY Dow is above the 9-day line and below 25-day and above 200-day lines. It is above the clouds of the Ichimoku chart.

The NASDAQ is above the 9-day line and above 25-day and 200-day lines. It is above the clouds the Ichimoku Chart.

The U.S. market is showing a “yellow light” in the short term and a “green light” in the medium term.

[Outlook for this week]

Looking at the technical aspects, the U.S. market is in a medium-term up trend and a short-term no trend. The Japanese market is in a medium-term no trend, and the short-term is down trend.

Analysis of the foreign exchange market indicates that the yen has shifted towards depreciation, with the low of 139 yen reached in April 2025 marking the bottom. This week, the yen is expected to trade between the 157 and 154 yen per dollar range.

In the U.S. markets this week, attention will focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI)—which are expected to influence the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision—amid escalating hostilities between Iran and the U.S. and expectations that the disruption to energy supplies will persist. Globally, key releases include the ECB’s policy rate decision, Germany’s industrial production index, China’s trade data and Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI).

Last week, the Nikkei 225 fell below the expected range. The high was about 1,440 yen below the upper limit, and the low was about 560 yen below the lower limit.

This week, the Nikkei 225 is expected to trade within a range defined by the 25-day moving average (currently around 66,070 yen) on the upside and the -2σ Bollinger Band (currently 63,280 yen) on the downside.

This week, the Nikkei Average is likely to be influenced by uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East and speculation about whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September. If expectations that U.S. long-term interest rates will rise persist, the market is likely to remain weak.

2026年8月30日日曜日

Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [30 August 2026]

[Fundamental viewpoint]

Last week, U.S. stock markets saw stock indices rise for the week, buoyed by strong earnings reports from NVIDIA and Salesforce.

Weekly percentage change: Dow Jones: +0.53%, NASDAQ: +0.85%, S&P 500: +0.49%

Considering the OECD’s nominal GDP forecasts for 2026, the Japanese market is overvalued by 0.06 points relative to the U.S. market. This overvaluation stems from the difference between the S&P 500’s P/E ratio of 21.1 and the projected P/E ratio of 17.3 for the constituent stocks of the Nikkei 225 for the current fiscal year, as well as the interest rate differential and the difference in GDP growth rates between Japan and the U.S.

For the Japanese and U.S. markets to reach equilibrium, the following conditions must be met:

Compared to the current Nikkei 225 price, the difference in GDP growth rates between Japan and the U.S. in 2026 must narrow by an additional 0.06 percentage points compared to the OECD forecast (either Japan’s forecast is revised upward or the U.S.’s is revised downward). Alternatively, the projected P/E ratio for the current fiscal year for Nikkei 225 constituent stocks must reach approximately 18.0. Or, the Nikkei 225 must reach approximately 65,740 yen.

Consequently, over the medium to long term, the Japanese market is undervalued by about 670 yen.

From a fundamental perspective, the Japanese market could be considered slightly more attractive than the U.S. market. Last week, the Japanese market shifted to an overvalued status..

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

① Rising US market

②　Increase in profit forecast for the current fiscal year above the previous year's level

③ Further depreciation of the yen due to the widening interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S.

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2026 GDP estimate (now +2.9%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

Looking at recent movements

① The weekly leg of the NYDow was positive last week. The daily is above the 200-day line and the clouds on the Ichimoku Chart. The weekly leg of the NASDAQ was positive. The daily is a above the 200-day line and the clouds on the Ichimoku Chart. This week, the focus will be on whether the NYDow can keep above the 25-day line.

② Following the release of earnings results, the projected ROE for Nikkei 225 constituent stocks stood at +10.9%. This represents an improvement of +0.3 percentage points compared to three months ago. The profit growth rate was +18.1%, marking an improvement of +8.9 percentage points compared to three months ago.

③ Although U.S. long-term interest rates fell and the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. narrowed from 1.86 to 1.81, the dollar-yen exchange rate moved in the direction of yen weakness, ranging from the 158-yen level to the 160-yen level. The Dollar Index rose 0.85% for the week.

⑤ Net selling was recorded in the third week of August. It is highly likely that net buying occurred in the fourth week of August, and net selling is expected this week. Last week, out of the five points, point ① was a bullish factor.

[Technical viewpoint]

From a technical perspective, the Japanese market is overvalued by 5.0 percentage points (equivalent to approximately 3,320 yen when calculated based on the Nikkei 225) relative to the NASDAQ, as measured by the difference in 200-day moving average deviations. Meanwhile, the Japanese market is overvalued by 5.7 percentage points (equivalent to approximately 3,790 yen when calculated based on the Nikkei 225) relative to the NY Dow, as measured by the difference in 200-day moving average deviations.

The Japanese market is performing stronger than the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ. The VIX, an indicator of volatility in the U.S. market, rose to 14.4 for the week. The Nikkei VI fell to 23.3 for the week. The U.S. market is in a “state of optimism,” while the Japanese market is in a “slightly fearful” state.

The Nikkei Average is above the 9-day and 25-day moving averages. A “green light” is lit for the short-term trend.

The Nikkei Average is within the cloud of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart. The overall deviation rate is +14.4%, and the deviation rate from the 200-day moving average is +13.3%. With two factors positive, a “yellow light” is lit for the medium-term trend.

In the US market, the NY Dow is above the 9-day line and 25-day and 200-day lines. It is above the clouds of the Ichimoku chart.

The NASDAQ is above the 9-day line and above 25-day and 200-day lines. It is above the clouds the Ichimoku Chart.

The U.S. market is showing a “green light” in the short term and a “green light” in the medium term.

[Outlook for this week]

Looking at the technical aspects, the U.S. market is in a medium-term up trend and a short-term up trend. The Japanese market is in a medium-term no trend, and the short-term is up trend.

In the U.S. markets this week, long-term interest rates have remained at high levels, and the employment report—which will have a major impact on whether or not interest rates are raised—is the most important event. In addition, the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will also be in the spotlight. Globally, data on inflation and unemployment rates in the Eurozone, PMI figures, China’s PMI, Japan’s retail sales and unemployment rate, industrial production, and the consumer confidence index are scheduled to be released.

Last week, the Nikkei 225 traded within the expected range. The high was about 600 yen below the upper limit, and the low was about 900 yen above the lower limit.

This week, the Nikkei 225 is expected to trade within a range defined by the upper limit at the +1σ level of the Bollinger Bands (currently around 67,560 yen) and the lower limit at the -1σ level (currently 63,710 yen).

This week, the Nikkei 225 is likely to be influenced by uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East and expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike in September. If expectations of rising U.S. long-term interest rates persist, the market is likely to remain weak.

2026年8月23日日曜日

Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [23 August 2026]

[Fundamental viewpoint]

Last week, amid lingering concerns about a recession and the situation in Iran, speculation arose that the Treasury Department’s purchases of long-term government bonds would have only a limited impact on reducing the debt supply, causing stock indices to decline for the week.

Weekly percentage change: Dow Jones: -0.85%, NASDAQ: -2.05%, S&P 500: -1.43%

Considering the OECD’s nominal GDP forecasts for 2026, the Japanese market is undervalued by 0.08 points relative to the U.S. market. This undervaluation stems from the difference between the S&P 500’s P/E ratio of 21.0 and the projected P/E ratio of 17.0 for the constituent stocks of the Nikkei 225 for the current fiscal year, as well as the interest rate differential and the difference in GDP growth rates between Japan and the U.S.

For the Japanese and U.S. markets to reach equilibrium, the following conditions must be met:

Compared to the current Nikkei 225 price, the difference in GDP growth rates between Japan and the U.S. in 2026 must widen by an additional 0.08 percentage points compared to the OECD forecast (either Japan’s forecast is revised downward or the U.S.’s is revised upward). Alternatively, the projected P/E ratio for the current fiscal year for Nikkei 225 constituent stocks must reach approximately 17.2. Or, the Nikkei 225 must reach approximately 66,890 yen.

Consequently, the Japanese market is undervalued by about 700 yen in the medium to long term.

From a fundamental perspective, one could say that the Japanese market is slightly less attractive than the U.S. market. Last week, the Japanese market became undervalued.

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

① Rising US market

②　Increase in profit forecast for the current fiscal year above the previous year's level

③ Further depreciation of the yen due to the widening interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S.

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2026 GDP estimate (now +2.9%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

Looking at recent movements

① The weekly leg of the NYDow was negative last week. The daily is above the 200-day line and the clouds on the Ichimoku Chart. The weekly leg of the NASDAQ was negative. The daily is a above the 200-day line and the clouds on the Ichimoku Chart. This week, the focus will be on whether the NYDow can keep above the 25-day line.

③ Although U.S. long-term interest rates rose and the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. widened from 1.84 to 1.86, the dollar-yen exchange rate moved in the direction of yen appreciation, ranging from the 158-yen level to the 159-yen level. The Dollar Index fell 0.80% for the week.

⑤ Net buying was recorded in the second week of August. It is highly likely that net selling occurred in the third week of August, and net selling is expected this week. Last week, out of the five points, points ① and ③ were bearish factors.

[Technical viewpoint]

From a technical perspective, the Japanese market is overvalued by 5.5 percentage points (equivalent to approximately 3,630 yen when calculated based on the Nikkei 225) relative to the NASDAQ, as measured by the difference in 200-day moving average deviations. Meanwhile, the Japanese market is overvalued by 5.9 percentage points (equivalent to approximately 3,890 yen when calculated based on the Nikkei 225) relative to the NY Dow, as measured by the difference in 200-day moving average deviations.

The Japanese market is performing stronger than the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ. The VIX, an indicator of volatility in the U.S. market, rose to 15.1 for the week. The Nikkei VI fell to 28.4 for the week. The U.S. market is in a “state of optimism,” while the Japanese market is in a “slightly fearful” state.

The Nikkei Average is below the 9-day and above 25-day moving averages. A “yellow light” is lit for the short-term trend.

The Nikkei Average is within the cloud of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart. The overall deviation rate is +13.6%, and the deviation rate from the 200-day moving average is +13.3%. With two factors positive, a “yellow light” is lit for the medium-term trend.

In the US market, the NY Dow is below the 9-day line and above 25-day and 200-day lines. It is above the clouds of the Ichimoku chart.

The NASDAQ is below the 9-day line and above 25-day and 200-day lines. It is above the clouds the Ichimoku Chart.

The U.S. market is showing a “yellow light” in the short term and a “green light” in the medium term.

[Outlook for this week]

Looking at the technical aspects, the U.S. market is in a medium-term up trend and a short-term no trend. The Japanese market is in a medium-term no trend, and the short-term is no trend.

In the U.S. markets this week, as investors grapple with persistently high energy prices and a widening fiscal deficit, attention will focus on speeches by FOMC members at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Additionally, NVIDIA’s earnings report is expected to serve as a leading indicator of AI demand. On the economic front, data such as the July PCE Price Index and durable goods orders will be released. Globally, the minutes from the ECB’s policy meeting, German business sentiment indicators, and Japan’s consumer confidence index and unemployment rate will be released.

Last week, the Nikkei 225 fell below the expected range. The high was about 980 yen below the upper limit, and the low was about 650 yen below the lower limit.

This week, the Nikkei 225 is expected to trade within a range defined by the upper limit at the +1σ level of the Bollinger Bands (currently around 67,580 yen) and the lower limit at the -1σ level (currently 63,650 yen).

The Nikkei 225 is likely to remain weak this week if uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East and expectations of rising U.S. long-term interest rates persist.

2026年8月16日日曜日

Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [16 August 2026]

[Fundamental viewpoint]

In the U.S. markets last week, diminished expectations of an interest rate hike by the Fed provided a positive boost, while concerns about an economic recession and the situation in Iran weighed on the markets, resulting in mixed weekly performance for the major stock indices.

Weekly percentage change: Dow Jones: -0.56%, NASDAQ: +0.14%, S&P 500: +0.36%

Considering the OECD’s nominal GDP forecasts for 2026, the Japanese market is overvalued by 0.06 points relative to the U.S. market. This overvaluation stems from the difference between the S&P 500’s P/E ratio of 21.4 and the projected P/E ratio of 17.7 for companies included in the Nikkei 225 for the current fiscal year, as well as the interest rate differential and the difference in GDP growth rates between Japan and the U.S.

For the Japanese and U.S. markets to reach equilibrium, the following conditions must be met:

Compared to the current Nikkei 225 price, the difference in GDP growth rates between Japan and the U.S. for 2026 must narrow by an additional 0.06 percentage points relative to the OECD forecast (either Japan’s forecast is revised upward or the U.S.’s is revised downward). Alternatively, the projected P/E ratio for the current fiscal year for Nikkei 225 constituent stocks must reach approximately 17.5. Or, the Nikkei 225 must reach approximately 67,950 yen.

Consequently, the Japanese market is overvalued by about 770 yen in the medium to long term.

From a fundamental perspective, the Japanese market could be considered slightly more attractive than the U.S. market. Last week, the Japanese market shifted into overvalued territory.

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

① Rising US market

②　Increase in profit forecast for the current fiscal year above the previous year's level

③ Further depreciation of the yen due to the widening interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S.

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2026 GDP estimate (now +2.9%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

Looking at recent movements

② Following the release of earnings results, the projected ROE for Nikkei 225 constituent stocks stood at +11.0%. This represents an improvement of +0.5 percentage points compared to three months ago. The profit growth rate was +17.8%, marking an improvement of +9.3 percentage points compared to three months ago.

③ Although U.S. long-term interest rates rose and the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. narrowed from 1.88 to 1.84, the dollar-yen exchange rate moved in the direction of yen weakness, ranging from the 157-yen level to the 159-yen level. The Dollar Index rose 0.03% for the week.

Net selling was recorded in the first week of August. It is highly likely that net buying occurred in the second week of August, and net buying is expected this week. Last week, points ② and ③ were bullish factors out of the five listed.

[Technical viewpoint]

From a technical perspective, the Japanese market is overvalued by 8.5 percentage points (equivalent to approximately 5,840 yen for the Nikkei 225) relative to the NASDAQ based on the 200-day moving average deviation. Meanwhile, it is overvalued by 10.3 percentage points (equivalent to approximately 7,080 yen for the Nikkei 225) relative to the NY Dow based on the 200-day moving average deviation.

The Japanese market is performing stronger than the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ. The VIX, an indicator of volatility in the U.S. market, fell to 14.3 for the week. The Nikkei VI rose to 31.0 for the week. The U.S. market is in a state of “optimism,” while the Japanese market is in a state of “fear.”

The Nikkei Average is above the 9-day and 25-day moving averages. A “green light” is lit for the short-term trend.

The Nikkei Average is within the cloud of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart. The overall deviation rate is +27.7%, and the deviation rate from the 200-day moving average is +18.9%. With two factors positive, a “yellow light” is lit for the medium-term trend.

In the US market, the NY Dow is below the 9-day line and above 25-day and 200-day lines. It is above the clouds of the Ichimoku chart.

The NASDAQ is above the 9-day line and 25-day and 200-day lines. It is above the clouds the Ichimoku Chart.

The U.S. market is showing a “yellow light” in the short term and a “green light” in the medium term.

[Outlook for this week]

Looking at the technical aspects, the U.S. market is in a medium-term up trend and a short-term no trend. The Japanese market is in a medium-term no trend, and the short-term is up trend.

This week, U.S. markets will continue to closely monitor developments in the Middle East and trends in crude oil prices. Interest rate trends will also be in focus following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Economic indicators set to be released include the S&P Flash PMI, building permits, and industrial production. Globally, data to be released includes the Eurozone PMI, Japan’s PMI, second-quarter GDP, trade balance, and inflation rate, as well as China’s industrial production, retail sales, and housing prices, and the UK’s PMI and unemployment rate.

Last week, the Nikkei Average traded above the expected range. The upper limit was exceeded by about 1,680 yen, and the lower limit by about 2,120 yen.

This week, the Nikkei Average is expected to trade within a range defined by the upper limit at the +2σ Bollinger Band (currently around 70,000 yen) and the lower limit at the 25-day moving average (currently 65,850 yen).

With uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East persisting and the earnings season nearing its end, the Nikkei 225 appears poised for a pause this week, given the extent of its recent rally and the time elapsed.

2026年8月9日日曜日

Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [9 August 2026]

[Fundamental viewpoint]

In the U.S. markets last week, crude oil prices fell on speculation that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran were making progress, leading to buying of blue-chip stocks and a weekly rise in stock indices.

Weekly percentage change: Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.96%, NASDAQ: +5.19%, S&P 500: +3.58%

Considering the OECD’s nominal GDP forecasts for 2026, the Japanese market is undervalued by 0.07 points relative to the U.S. market. The factors contributing to this overvaluation include the difference between the S&P 500’s P/E ratio of 21.3 and the projected P/E ratio of 17.3 for the constituent stocks of the Nikkei 225 for the current fiscal year, as well as the interest rate differential and the difference in GDP growth rates between Japan and the U.S.

For the Japanese and U.S. markets to reach equilibrium, the following conditions must be met:

Compared to the current Nikkei 225 price, the difference in GDP growth rates between Japan and the U.S. in 2026 must widen by an additional 0.07 percentage points compared to the OECD forecast (either Japan’s forecast is revised downward or the U.S.’s is revised upward). Alternatively, the projected P/E ratio for the current fiscal year for Nikkei 225 constituent stocks must reach approximately 17.5. Or, the Nikkei 225 must reach approximately 66,460 yen.

Consequently, the Japanese market is undervalued by about 860 yen in the medium to long term.

From a fundamental perspective, one could say that the Japanese market appears slightly more attractive than the U.S. market. Last week, the Japanese market shifted to being undervalued.

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

① Rising US market

②　Increase in profit forecast for the current fiscal year above the previous year's level

③ Further depreciation of the yen due to the widening interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S.

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2026 GDP estimate (now +2.9%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

Looking at recent movements

② Following the release of earnings results, the projected ROE for Nikkei 225 constituent stocks stood at +10.6%. This represents an improvement of +1.6 percentage points compared to three months ago. The profit growth rate was +16.6%, marking an improvement of +11.0 percentage points compared to three months ago.

③ Although U.S. long-term interest rates fell and the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. narrowed from 1.96 to 1.88, the dollar-yen exchange rate moved in the direction of yen weakness, ranging from the 155-yen level to the 158-yen level. The Dollar Index fell by 0.20% for the week.

⑤ The fifth week of July saw a net sell position. It is highly likely that the first week of August saw a net buy position, and a net buy position is expected this week. Last week, out of the five points, point ① was a bullish factor.

[Technical viewpoint]

From a technical perspective, the Japanese market is overvalued by 3.7 percentage points (equivalent to approximately 2,430 yen for the Nikkei 225) relative to the NASDAQ based on the 200-day moving average deviation. Meanwhile, it is overvalued by 4.7 percentage points (equivalent to approximately 3,080 yen for the Nikkei 225) relative to the NY Dow based on the 200-day moving average deviation.

The Japanese market is performing stronger than the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ. The VIX, an indicator of volatility in the U.S. market, fell to 14.9 for the week. The Nikkei VI rose to 29.9 for the week. The U.S. market is in a state of “optimism,” while the Japanese market is in a state of “fear.”

The Nikkei Average is above the 9-day and below 25-day moving averages. A “yellowd light” is lit for the short-term trend.

The Nikkei Average is within the cloud of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart. The overall deviation rate is +14.2%, and the deviation rate from the 200-day moving average is +14.3%. With two factors positive, a “yellow light” is lit for the medium-term trend.

In the US market, the NY Dow is above the 9-day line and 25-day and 200-day lines. It is above the clouds of the Ichimoku chart.

The NASDAQ is above the 9-day line and 25-day and 200-day lines. It is above the clouds the Ichimoku Chart.

The U.S. market is showing a “green light” in the short term and a “green light” in the medium term.

[Outlook for this week]

Looking at the technical aspects, the U.S. market is in a medium-term up trend and a short-term up trend. The Japanese market is in a medium-term no trend, and the short-term is no trend.

This week, U.S. markets will likely continue to keep a close eye on developments in the Middle East. Volatility in AI-related stocks is also expected to persist, with earnings reports from Applied Materials, Cisco, and CoreWeave drawing attention. Amid divided opinions regarding the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rate hikes next month, key economic indicators set to be released include the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), retail sales, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Globally, the UK’s second-quarter GDP figures, the eurozone’s industrial production data, China’s money supply and inflation rates, and the Bank of Japan’s July “Summary of Opinions” are scheduled for release.

Last week, the Nikkei Average traded largely within the expected range. The upper limit was exceeded by about 20 yen, and the lower limit was exceeded by about 1,220 yen.

This week, the Nikkei Average is expected to move within a range defined by the upper limit at the +1σ Bollinger Band (currently around 68,220 yen) and the lower limit at the -1σ Bollinger Band (currently 63,720 yen).

Amid ongoing uncertainty regarding the situation in the Middle East, this week is likely to test the strength of the rebound in AI and semiconductor-related stocks.

登録: 投稿 (Atom)