Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [23-September 2024]

 [Fundamental viewpoint]

In the U.S. markets last week, stock indices rose sharply during the week on the belief that the U.S. economy could have a soft landing following the Fed's significant 0.5% interest rate cut.

 

Weekly change NY Dow: +1.62%, NASDAQ: +1.49%, S&P 500: +1.38%.

                                                                                                 

On the other hand, medium- to long-term risks include concerns about the prolonged conflict in Ukraine, energy costs, financial instability and global economic slowdown due to rising interest rates, and the collapse of the real estate bubble and economic slowdown in China. This also raises concerns about the arrival of stagflation. In addition, geopolitical risks in East Asia and the Middle East continue to require attention.

The difference in the yield spread between the Japanese and U.S. markets is 4.23 points undervalued for the Japanese market when the OECD's nominal GDP forecast for 2025 is taken into account. The reason for the undervaluation is the difference between the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 23.1 and the Nikkei 225's P/E ratio of 15.0, the difference between the U.S. and Japanese interest rates, and the difference in GDP growth rates.

In order for the U.S. and Japanese markets to be in equilibrium, the following conditions must be met.

The difference in GDP growth between Japan and the U.S. in 2025 relative to the current price of the Nikkei 225 will be 4.23 percentage points larger than the OECD forecast. (Japan is revised downward or the U.S. is revised upward). Or the current year's forecast PER for stocks in the Nikkei Stock Average becomes about 41.2. Or, the Nikkei 225 will be around 103,450 yen.

As a result, the Japanese market is undervalued by about 65,730 yen in the medium to long term.

 

From a fundamental perspective, the Japanese market can be said to be about 65,730 yen less attractive than the U.S. market. Weakness in the Japanese market was somewhat magnified last week.

 

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

①    Rising US market

②　Increase in profit forecast for the current fiscal year above the previous year's level

③ Further depreciation of the yen due to the widening interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S.

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2025 GDP estimate (now +2.9%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

 

Looking at recent movements

①    The weekly leg of the NYDow was positive last week. The daily chart is above the 200-day line and above the clouds of the Ichimoku Chart. The NASDAQ's weekly leg was positive last week. The daily chart is above the 200-day line and above the equilibrium cloud. This week, the focus will be on whether or not the NY Dow can keep above the 25-day line.

②    As a result of the earnings announcements, the forecasted ROE for the Nikkei 225 index came in at +8.8%, a deterioration of 0.2 percentage points from three months ago. The profit growth rate was +2.6%, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points from three months ago.

③    U.S. long-term interest rates rose and the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan widened from 2.82 to 2.91, causing the dollar/yen to move toward a weaker yen in the range of ¥139 to ¥144. The dollar index fell -0.37% for the week.

④    The OECD's nominal GDP growth rate for Japan and the U.S. in 2025 is expected to be +2.9% for Japan and +3.9% for the U.S., so the Japanese market is 1.0 percentage points inferior in this aspect.

⑤    The second week of September was likely oversold, the third week of September was likely overbought, and this week is expected to be overbought. Of the five points last week, ① and ③ were bullish.

 

[Technical viewpoint]

Looking at the Japanese market from a technical perspective, it is undervalued by 8.3 points in the medium to long term in terms of the difference in the 200-day divergence rate from the NASDAQ (about 3,130 yen when converted to the Nikkei 225). On the other hand, the difference in the 200-day divergence from the NYDow is undervalued by 7.2 points in the medium to long term (about 2,720 yen when calculated for the Nikkei 225).

 

Japanese markets remain weak against the NY Dow and NASDAQ. The VIX, a measure of U.S. market volatility, declined to a weekly low of 16.2. The Nikkei VI fell to a weekly low of 24.3. The U.S. market is optimistic and the Japanese market is volatile.

 

The Nikkei 225 is above the 9-day and 25-day lines. This is a “green light” for the short-term trend.

The Nikkei 225 is above the Ichimoku Kinko Chart's cloud. The Nikkei 225's divergence ratio is -0.5%. The divergence from the 200-day moving average was +0.3% since two factors are positive, a “yellow light” has been given to the medium-term trend.

 

In the U.S. market, the NYDow is above the 9-day, and 25-day lines, and 200-day line. It is above the Ichimoku Chart cloud.

The NASDAQ is above the 9-day, and 25-day lines, and 200-day line. The NASDAQ is above the Ichimoku Chart cloud.

This is a “green signal” in the short term and a “green signal” in the medium term.

 

[Outlook for this week]

Looking at the U.S. market in terms of fundamentals, we are aware of concerns of a recession in the near term. Other risk factors include inflation and rising interest rates due to the Russia-Ukraine war, economic recession due to energy shortages and deteriorating political conditions in the EU, U.S.-China trade friction, financial market turmoil caused by the bursting of China's real estate bubble and credit crunch, and expanding geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

 

Recent LIBOR rates have been on the rise, and we continue to be wary of a resurgence of financial instability.

 

Looking at the technical aspects, the U.S. market is in a medium-term up trend and a short-term up trend. The Japanese market is in a medium-term no trend, and the short-term is up trend.

 

Analysis of the foreign exchange market shows that the yen has turned toward appreciation after peaking at the 162 yen level, which was reached in June 2024. This week, a range of 140 yen to 145 yen is expected.

 

This week, U.S. markets will focus on PCE prices, personal income, and consumer spending, as well as speeches by several Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Also in focus will be the finalized Q2 GDP growth, PMI data, the CB Consumer Confidence Index, durable goods orders, and the number of new and preliminary existing home sales. Globally, attention will be focused on September PMIs for Japan, the Eurozone, and the U.K., Australia's interest rate decision, inflation in France and Spain, and the German consumer confidence index.

 

Last week, the Nikkei 225 moved above its assumed range. The upside was about 530 yen above our assumption and the downside was about 410 yen above the assumed line.

This week, the Nikkei 225 is expected to move within the assumed range with the upper price at the Bollinger Band +2σ (currently around 39330 yen) and the lower price between the 25-day line (currently around 37450 yen).

 

This week, the US long-term interest rates and the US dollar/yen will be of interest. If the U.S. long-term interest rates continue to rise, the Nikkei 225 will be able to approach the +2σ Bollinger band.