[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, the stock
market index rose, driven by the development of new coronavirus vaccines and
the rise in market prices of mainstay high-tech stocks. On the other hand, in
the medium to long term, the spread of new types of pneumonia, an inward
political situation centered on the world's own country, a lack of
creditworthiness and credit crunch of banks, a slowdown in China and other
economies, a fear of a slowdown in the global economy due to trade wars, etc.
The geopolitical risks of the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula and Ukraine
need continued attention.
The difference in the yield spread between
the Japanese and U.S. markets is the published OECD real GDP forecast for 2021
The Japanese market is overvalued by 0.86 points, considering the announced
OECD real GDP forecast for 2021. The reason for the overvaluation is the
difference between the P/E of the S&P500 at 26.7 and the expected P/E of 21.7
of the Nikkei 225 stocks for the current fiscal year, as well as the difference
between Japanese and U.S. interest rates and GDP growth.
This means that if the difference in the
GDP growth rate between Japan and the U.S. in 2021 is further decrease by 0.86%
compared to the OECD forecast (Japan is revised downward or the U.S. is revised
upward), or if the PER of the Nikkei 225 stocks for the current term is around 18.3
or if the Nikkei 225 is around 19300 yen, the Japanese market is overvalued by 3590
yen in the medium to long term , which is roughly balanced.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2021 GDP
estimate (now -0.5%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
①
Last week's NYDow weekly trend
was positive. The daily footstep is above the 200-day line and above the clouds
of the Ichimoku kinko table. NASDAQ weekly trend was positive. The daily
footstep is above the 200-day line and above the clouds of the Ichimoku kinko
table. House indexes, quarterly financial results announcements, August ISM
Manufacturing Economy Index, August Employment Statistics will be the focus
this week. It will be interesting to see if NYDow can keep above the 25-day
line.
②
As a result of the announcement
of the quarterly financial results, the forecasted ROE of the Nikkei 225 stocks
was 5.0%. 0.2 points worse than 3 months ago. Profit growth was -17.7%. 1.7
points worse than 3 months ago.
③
The long-term interest rate in
the United States rose, the interest rate differential between Japan and the US
expanded from 0.61% to 0.67%, but the yen was strengthening from the 106 yen
level to the 105 yen level.
④
The OECD's real GDP growth
forecasts for Japan and the U.S. for 2021 were released, and Japan's GDP growth
rate is expected to be -.0.5%. The U.S. market is expected to be up 1.9%, which
means that the Japanese market is 2.4 points worse off in this respect.
⑤
The 2nd week of August was a over
selling. There was a high possibility that the 3rd week of August was over selling,
and this week we are forecasting to over selling. Of the five points last week,
① was a bullish factor and ③ was a bearish
factor. This week, it seems that ① ② ③ ⑤ will influence.
[Technical viewpoint]
From a technical perspective on the
Japanese market, the difference in the 200-day deviation rate from NASDAQ is 21.6
points (about 4940 yen when considering the Nikkei 225 average) over the medium
to long term. The price range expanded compared to last week. On the other
hand, the difference in the 200-day deviation rate from NYDow is 5.2 points
(about 1190 yen when considering the Nikkei 225 average) under the medium to
long term.
The Nikkei 225 is above the clouds in the
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. The total deviation rate was +7.0%, which shrank positive width
compared to last week. The 200-day moving average deviation rate was +3.9%,
which shrank positive width. As the three factors are positive, the "green
light" is lit in the medium term trend.
The Nikkei 225 is above the 25th line but
under the 9th line. The "yellow light" is lit in short-term trends.
In the US market, NY Dow is above the 200
and 25 day lines and the 9 day line. It is above the clouds in the Ichimoku
Kinko table. Nasdaq is above the 200 and 25 day lines, and the 9 day line. It
is above the clouds of the Ichimoku Kinko table.
In the short term, the "green
light" is lit, and in the medium term, the "green light" is lit.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as interest rate hikes in the United States, US-China trade
friction, US political uncertainty, North Korea issues are receding However, Spread
of pneumonia infection by new coronavirus, falling crude oil prices, worsening
U.S. corporate earnings, falling high yield bond markets , global long-term
interest rate decline trend, financial market turmoil caused by credit slumps, lack
of creditworthiness and political situation of EU banks, global economic
slowdown concern with trade war, geopolitical risk of the Middle East and
Ukraine Etc exist as a risk factor.
In addition, although the LIBOR interest rate
has recently been declining, in March, the LIBOR interest rate has risen
despite a decline in short-term interest rates, so there is a concern that
financial instability may recur.
On the other hand, good news is the US zero
interest rate policy, the Fed's direct financial support to companies including
the purchase of junk bonds, economic measures of $ 3 trillion, and President
Trump's policy expectations, monetary easing measures such as the Bank of
Japan's 2% inflation target, the introduction of negative interest rates and
the purchase of unlimited Japanese government bonds and 12 trillion yen in
ETFs, as well as expectations for economic measures by the Japanese government
that exceed the level of the Lehman Shock, Established 92 trillion yen corona
reconstruction fund by EU, and the ECB's announcement of deepening negative
interest rates and expanding quantitative easing.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is upward trend in the medium term and upward trend in
the short term. The Japanese market is upward trend in the medium term and no trend
in the short term.
Analyzing the foreign exchange market last
week, although the long-term interest rates in the US rose and the long-term
interest rate differential between the US and Japan widened, the yen moved
toward a stronger yen. This week, we expect prices in the 105 to 104 yen range.
From now on, we need to pay attention to
technical indicators, US market trends, exchange rate movements, and foreign
investor trends.
This week, the US employment statistics for
August are likely to be highlighted. Non-farm payrolls are expected to grow by
more than a million and unemployment rates could drop below 10% for the first
time since April. Elsewhere, GDP data for Brazil, India, Australia and Turkey
will be keenly watched as well as worldwide manufacturing and services PMI
surveys and monetary policy action by the RBA. Other releases include trade
figures for the US and Canada, factory orders for the US and Germany,
industrial output and retail sales for Japan and South Korea.
The Nikkei average for last week was below
the expected range. The upper price fell about 40 yen below the assumed line,
and the lower price fell about 180 yen below the assumed line. As for the
expected range of this week's Nikkei average, it is assumed that the upper
price will be between Bollinger band +1σ (currently around 23170 yen) and the
lower value will be between Bollinger band -1σ (currently around 22390 yen).
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