Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [13-Aug-2017]

[Present state recognition of fundamental]

In the US market last week, selling was dominant due to caution against the military conflict between North Korea and the United States.　In the medium to long term, there are fears of a slowdown in the global economy due to the lack of creditworthiness of European banks and concerns about credit contraction, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the stagnation of crude oil prices, and We need continued attention to the geopolitical risk of the Middle East and Ukraine.

The difference in the yield spread between the US and Japanese markets is 2.57 points less than in the Japanese market, taking into account the 2018 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 18.8 and the Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 14.0,and Japan-US interest rate difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth between Japan and the US in 2018 is 2.6% more than the OECD forecast (Japan will downgrade or US will be revised upward) against the current Nikkei average price, Or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be around 22.3(the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the Nikkei average will be around 30780 yen) By the way, the Japanese market is cheap about 11050 yen.

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

① Rising US market

② UP of expected profit increase rate for the current term more than before

③ Expansion of the interest rate differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2018 GDP estimate (now + 0.98%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

Looking at recent movements

① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was negative. The daily bar is on the 200 day line, and it is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. Nasdaq weekly foot was negative. NASDAQ bar is on the 200-day line and on the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to Housing related indicators, Quarterly financial results announcement , retail sales in July, industrial production in July. I would like to pay attention to whether NYDow will keep updating the historical highs.

② The expected profit increase for the Nikkei225 hires will be 9.0% with the announcement of the financial results along with the announcement of the financial results for the Jan-Mar period, and it improved by 0.4 points compared to 3 months ago. In addition, the growth rate forecast for the current term is + 5.7%, which is 4.8 points worse than three months ago.

③ Long-term interest rates in the US has risen, the interest rate differential between Japan and the US shrunk from 2.20 to 2.14%, but the exchange rate moved from the 110 yen level to 108 yen level. This week is estimated to be 108 yen range from 110 yen range.

④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2018 in Japan and the US is expected to be + 1.0% in Japan and + 2.4% in the US, so the Japanese market is worse by 1.4 points on this aspect.

⑤1st week of July is a over selling. there is a high possibility that the 2nd week of August is a over selling, and this week we are forecasting to over selling.

①,③ was a bearish factor. It seems that ①,③,⑤ will be affected this week.

[Technical viewpoint]

From the technical viewpoint of the Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 4.0 points less expensive in the mid to long term (about 790 yen when calculating the Nikkei average) and it is cheap. The ratio shrunk 0.7 points last week.

The Nikkei average on the cloud of the ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was +4.6%, and the positive range shrunk compared to last week. The 200 day moving average line deviation rate was + 4.3%, and the positive range shrunk compared to last week. Since the 3 elements are positive, the "yellow light" is on for the medium term trend. The Nikkei average is under the 25 day and the 9 day moving average line,  "red light " is on for short-term trends.

In the US market NY Dow is on the 200 day line and the 25 day but under the 9 day line . It is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. NASDAQ is on the 200 day average line but under the 25 day average line and the 9 day average line. It is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. In the short term " yellow light" is on and in the medium term " green light" is on.

[Outlook for this week]

Looking at the US market fundamentally, concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, falling high-yield bond market, financial market turmoil due to UK's withdrawal from the EU, global long-term interest rate trends declined, etc. Concern is diminished. However, there are fears concerning the global economic slowdown due to the US interest rate hikes, Situation of North Korea, the creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the sluggish growth of US corporate earnings, geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as risk factors It exists.

China's real estate prices are flat in big cities, but the problem of bad loans in China such as excessive facilities has not been resolved. If you rush up the process, it will lead to a short-term market decline, and there is a concern that prolonged recession will prolong the recession.

Also, the most recent LIBOR interest rate has been updated for the past five years high and conscious of the possibility of financial unrest.

On the other hand, as favorable material, the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation. Negative interest rates and purchase of government bonds are maintained for policy interest rates by the ECB. However, the government bond buy-out frame has been reduced from EUR 80 billion to EUR 60 billion in April 2017. EU is also headed towards financial normality.

Looking at the technical aspect, the US market is upward trend in the medium-term, and no trend in the short term. The Japanese market is no trend in the medium-term, and downward trend in the short term.

Analyzing the exchange market last week, long-term interest rates in the US declined, the long-term interest rate differential between the US and Japan shrunk, and the exchange rate became a strong yen movement in the week. From now on, we need to pay attention to technical indicators, US market trends, foreign exchange movements and foreign investor's trends.

Last week's Nikkei average was generally within the assumed range. The upper price is about 20 yen below the assumed line, the lower price is also around the assumed line, about 90 yen lower. This week's Nikkei average is expected to move between the 25 day average line (currently around 20010 yen) and the lower price between Bollinger band -3σ (currently around 19690 yen). However, as the strong yen movement and the US market fell sharply during the consecutive holidays, it seems to begin with a fall of about 400 yen at the beginning of the week.