Outlook for the Nikkei average this week [22-Jan-2017]

[Present state recognition of fundamental]

In the US market last week, with uncertainty over the economy policy of the Trump regime and the depreciation of the crude oil, it became somewhat dominant in selling.Meanwhile, in the medium to long term, there are fears of a slowdown in the global economy due to the lack of creditworthiness of European banks and concerns about credit contraction, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the stagnation of crude oil prices, and We need continued attention to the geopolitical risk of the Middle East and Ukraine.

The difference in the yield spread between the US and Japanese markets is 0.63 points less than in the Japanese market, taking into account the 2018 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 17.5 and the Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 16.4,and Japan-US interest rate difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth between Japan and the US in 2018 is 0.4% more than the OECD forecast (Japan is downgraded downwards or the US is upwardly modified) against the current Nikkei average price, Or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be around 18.3(the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the Nikkei average will be around 21330 yen) By the way, the Japanese market is cheap about 2190 yen.

[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]

In the future, the following assumptions are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.

① Rising US market

② UP of expected profit increase rate for the current term more than before

③ Expansion of the interest rate differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen

④ Upward revision of Japan's 2018 GDP estimate (now + 0.83%) by OECD

⑤ Foreign investors over-buying

Looking at recent movements

① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was negative. The daily bar is on the 200 day line, and it is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. Nasdaq bar on the 200-day line and is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to housing related indicators, preliminary GDP figures for the October-December quarter, orders for durable goods in December, announcement of the results for the October-December fiscal year, new government trends. I would like to pay attention to whether NYDow can go back on the 25th day moving average line.

② The expected profit increase for the Nikkei225 hires will be 8.2% with the announcement of the financial results for July-September, and there is no change compared to three months ago. In addition, The growth rate for the current business forecast is + 4.9%, and there is no change compared to three months ago.

③ Long-term interest rates in the US rose, the interest rate differential between Japan and the US expanded from 2.36 to 2.42%, and the exchange rate moved from the 112 yen level to 115 yen level, a move toward the depreciation of the yen. This week is estimated to be 112 yen range from 115 yen range.

④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2018 in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.8% in Japan and + 3.0% in the US, so the Japanese market is worse by 2.2 points on this aspect.

⑤ There is a high possibility that the 2nd week of January is a purchase, the 3rd week of January was a selling, and this week we are forecasting to sell.

① was the cause of bearish and ③ was the cause of bullrish. It seems that ①, ③,⑤ will be affected this week.

[Technical viewpoint]

From the technical viewpoint of the Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 4.6 points in the mid to long term (about 880 yen when calculating the Nikkei average) and it is expensive. The ratio exceeds the previous week's increase by 0.5 points.

The Nikkei average on the cloud of the ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was + 16.9%, and the positive width narrowed compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate was + 12.0%, and the positive width shrank. Since the three elements are positive, the "green light" is on for the medium term trend. The Nikkei average is on the ninth day line, but it is under the 25 day line. "Yellow signal" is on for short-term trends.

In the US market NY Dow is on the 200 day line, but it is under the 25 day line, 9 day line. It is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. Nasdaq lies on the 200th and 25th line, but it is under the 9th line. It is on the cloud of the ichimoku table. In the short term " yellow signal" , in the medium term "green light" is lit.

[Outlook for this week]

Looking at the US market fundamentally, concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, falling high-yield bond market, financial market turmoil due to UK's withdrawal from the EU, global long-term interest rate trends declined. However, there are fears concerning the global economic slowdown due to the US interest rate hikes, the creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, the economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the sluggish growth of US corporate earnings, geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as risk factors It exists.

China's real estate prices are rising in big cities, but the problem of bad loans in China such as excessive facilities has not been resolved. If you rush up the process, it will lead to a short-term market decline, and there is a concern that prolonged recession will prolong the recession.

Also, the most recent LIBOR interest rate has been updated for the past five years high and conscious of the possibility of financial unrest.

On the other hand, as favorable material, the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation, maintenance of different dimensions of monetary easing measures such as negative interest rates on policy interest rates by the ECB and purchase of government bonds of EUR 60 billion each month, interest rate reductions in emerging countries such as China There is a trend.

Looking at the technical aspect, the US market is a medium-term upward trend, and in the short term no trend. The Japanese market is a medium-term upward trend, and no  trend in the short term.

Analyzing the situation in the immediate Japanese market, Long-term interest rates in the US rose, the long-term interest rate gap between the US and Japan expanded, so  the exchange rate became a weak yen movement in the week. From now on, we need to pay attention to technical indicators, US market trends, foreign exchange movements and foreign investor trends.

Last week's Nikkei average went down within the expected range. The upper price was lower than the assumed line by about 250 yen, and the lower price was 440 yen lower than the assumed line.

This week's Nikkei average is expected to move between upper price is the 25-day moving average line (the current price is around 19280 yen) and the lower price is Bollinger band -2σ-200yen (around 18710 yen now).