[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, concerns about
the economic slowdown eased and buying was dominated by high performing stocks.
In the medium to long term, there are fears of a slowdown in the global economy
due to confusion of US politics, raise rate by FRB, European political turmoil
and the creditworthiness of European banks and credit crunch concerns, the
economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, and concern over the
global economic slowdown due to trade war. We need continued attention to the
geopolitical risk of the Middle East , Korean Peninsula and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 3.34 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2020 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 18.2 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 12.1 and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2019 is 3.3% more than the OECD forecast (Japan
will downgrade or US will be revised upward) against the current Nikkei average
price, or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in
equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 20.2 (the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 36270 yen) . In the medium to long term, the
Japanese market is low valued at about 14610 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2020 GDP
estimate (now +0.68%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was positive.
The daily bar is above the 200 day line, and it is above the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq weekly foot was positive. NASDAQ bar is above the 200-day line and
it is above the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying
attention to Housing related indicators, Quarterly financial results
announcement , July ISM manufacturing index, July employment statistics. I
would like to pay attention to whether NYDow can keep above the 25th day line.
② The expected profit increase for the
Nikkei 225 hires will be 8.9% with the announcement of the financial results
for the January-March term, 0.1 points worse than 3 months ago. In addition,
the profit growth rate for the current business forecast is +3.1%, an
improvement of 9.3 points from three months ago..
③Long-term interest rates in the United
States rose, the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States
expanded from 2.20% to 2.23%, and the currency moved from the 107 yen level to
the 108 yen level.
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2020
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.61% in Japan and + 2.28% in the US,
so the Japanese market is worse by 1.67 points on this aspect.
⑤ The 3rd week of June is a over selling. there is a high
possibility that the 4th week of July is
a over selling, and this week we are forecasting to over selling.
last week, ①,③ ware bullish factor. It seems that ①,②,③,⑤ will be affected this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical viewpoint of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 10.0
points lower than NASDAQ in the medium to long term. (It is about 2170 yen when
it is based on the Nikkei average) Proportions shrank compared to last week.
The Nikkei average is above the cloud of
the ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was +2.4%, and changed to the positive
width compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate was
+0.7%, and changed to the positive width compared to last week. Since the three
element ware positive, the "green signal" is lit in the medium term
trend. The Nikkei average is above the 25_day moving average line and the 9_day
moving average line, "green signal
" is lit for short-term trends.
In the US market NY Dow is above the 200_day
line and the 25_day line but under the 9_day line. It is above the cloud of
ichimoku table. NASDAQ is above the 200_day average line and the 25_day average
line and the 9_day average line. It is above the cloud of the ichimoku table. In
the short term "yellow signal" is lit and in the medium term " green
signal" is lit.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as interest rate hikes in the United States, sluggish growth in
US corporate performance, financial market turmoil caused by credit slumps,
North Korea issues, falling crude oil prices and falling high yield bond
markets are receding However, global long-term interest rate decline trend,
US-China trade friction, US political uncertainty, lack of creditworthiness and
political situation of EU banks, global economic slowdown concern with trade
war, geopolitical risk of the Middle East and Ukraine Etc exist as a risk
factor.
Real estate prices in China are flat in
large cities, but the problems of nonperforming loans in China as a whole such
as excessive facilities have not been resolved. If you hurry up the process, it
will lead to a short-term market drop, and if you delay proceeding, there is
concern that the economic recession will be prolonged.
Also, the latest LIBOR interest rate is on
the upward trend, it continues to update the high price in the past five years,
which implies that global nonperforming debt continues to increase, and the
possibility of financial unrest is revealed .
On the other hand, the following points can
be pointed out as favorable materials. US interest rate cut expectations,
policy expectation of President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the
Bank of Japan, introduction of negative interest rate and purchase of ETF of 80
trillion yen · 6 trillion yen ETF Clarification of the duration of interest
rate manipulation and monetary easing and ECB Suggests Policy Rate Reductions.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is upward trend in the medium-term, and no trend in the short term. The
Japanese market is upward trend in the medium-term, and upward trend in the
short term.
Analysis of the foreign exchange market
last week showed that the US long-term interest rates rose, and the US-Japan
long-term interest rate gap expanded, and the exchange rate was moving toward a
weaker yen in weeks. This week, 108 yen to 107 yen is expected. From now on, we
need to focus on technical indicators, US market trends, currency movements and
foreign investor trends.
Last week's Nikkei exceeded the expected
range. The upper price was about 120 yen above the expected line, and the lower
price was about 110 yen above the expected line. The expected range of this
week's Nikkei average is Bollinger Band + 2σ (currently around 21930 yen), and
the lower price is expected to move between the 25th line (currently around
21510 yen).
