[Present state recognition of fundamental]
Last week in the US market, with
expectations for the tax reform plan by President Trump and strong quarterly
settlement of accounts, so buying power was dominant. In the medium to long
term, there are fears of a slowdown in the global economy due to the lack of
creditworthiness of European banks and concerns about credit contraction, the
economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the rate hike of the
Federal Reserve and the stagnation of crude oil prices, and We need continued
attention to the geopolitical risk of the Middle East and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 0.96 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2018 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 18.5 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 16.0,and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2018 is 0.9% more than the OECD forecast (Japan is
downgraded downwards or the US is upwardly modified) against the current Nikkei
average price, Or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be
in equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 18.9(the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 22670 yen) By the way, the Japanese market is
cheap about 3480 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2018 GDP
estimate (now + 0.83%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was negative.
The daily bar is on the 200 day line, and it is on the cloud of the ichimoku table.
Nasdaq weekly foot was negative. Nasdaq bar is on the 200-day line and the
cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to quarterly
financial results announcement, housing related indicators, ISM manufacturing
business conditions index of April, employment statistics of April., I would
like to pay attention to whether NYDow can keep above the clouds of ichimoku
table.
② The expected profit increase for the
Nikkei225 hires will be 7.9% with the announcement of the financial results along
with the announcement of the financial results for the October-December period,
and it gained 0.3 points worse, compared to 3 months ago. In addition, The
growth rate for the current business forecast is +5.6%, and it improved by 1.5
points compared to 3 months ago.
③ Long-term interest rates in the US has
risen, the interest rate differential between Japan and the US expanded from 2.23
to 2.28%, and the exchange rate moved from the 109 yen level to 111 yen level. This
week is estimated to be 109 yen range from 112 yen range.
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2018
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 0.8% in Japan and + 3.0% in the US, so
the Japanese market is worse by 2.2 points on this aspect.
⑤ The 3rd week of Apr was a over buying and
there is a high possibility that the 4th week of Apr is a over buying, and this
week we are forecasting to over buying.
①,③,⑤ was bullish factor. It seems that ①,②,③,⑤ will be affected this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical viewpoint of the
Japanese market, the 200-day divergence rate difference with NASDAQ is 3.6 points
less expensive in the mid to long term (about 690 yen when calculating the
Nikkei average) and it is cheap. The ratio shrank 0.8 points.
The Nikkei average in the cloud of the
ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was +9.1%, and the positive range expanded
compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line deviation rate was + 6.5%,
and the positive range expanded compared to last week. Since the tow elements
are positive, the "yellow light" is on for the medium term trend. The
Nikkei average is on the 25 day line and the 9 day line, "green light " is on for short-term
trends.
In the US market NY Dow is on the 200 day
line and the 25 day and the 9 day line . It is on the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq is on the 200 day and the 25 day and the 9 day line. It is on the
cloud of the ichimoku table. In the short term " green " is on and in
the medium term green light" is on.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, falling
high-yield bond market, financial market turmoil due to UK's withdrawal from
the EU, global long-term interest rate trends decline,etc. Concern is backwards.
However, there are fears concerning the global economic slowdown due to the US
interest rate hikes, the creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, the
economic slowdown of emerging economies such as China, the sluggish growth of
US corporate earnings, geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as
risk factors It exists.
China's real estate prices are flat in big
cities, but the problem of bad loans in China such as excessive facilities has
not been resolved. If you rush up the process, it will lead to a short-term
market decline, and there is a concern that prolonged recession will prolong
the recession.
Also, the most recent LIBOR interest rate
has been updated for the past five years high and conscious of the possibility
of financial unrest.
On the other hand, as favorable material,
the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New
President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of
negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion
yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration
of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation. Negative
interest rates and purchase of government bonds are maintained for policy
interest rates by the ECB. However, the government bond buy-out frame will be
reduced from EUR 80 billion to EUR 60 billion in April 2017.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is rising trend in the medium-term, and rising trend in the short term.
The Japanese market is no trend in the medium-term, and rising trend in the
short term.
Analyzing the exchange market last week, Long-term
interest rates in the US rose, the long-term interest rate gap between the US
and Japan has expanded, so the exchange rate became a weak yen movement in the
week. From now on, we need to pay attention to technical indicators, US market
trends, foreign exchange movements and foreign investor's trends.
Last week's Nikkei average rose above the
expected range. The upper price exceeded the assumed line by about 190 yen
more, but the lower price exceeded the assumed line by about 350 yen. This
week's Nikkei average is expected to move between upper price is Bollinger band
+2σ (the current price is around 19410 yen) and the lower price is 25 day average line (the current price is around 18880 yen ).
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