[Present state recognition of fundamental]
In the US market last week, selling was
dominant due to concerns about the slowdown of the world economy. In the medium
to long term, there are fears of a slowdown in the global economy due to confusion
of US politics, raise rate by FRB, European political turmoil and the
creditworthiness of European banks and credit crunch concerns, the economic
slowdown of emerging economies such as China, and concern over the global economic
slowdown due to trade war. We need continued attention to the geopolitical risk
of the Middle East , Korean Peninsula and Ukraine.
The difference in the yield spread between
the US and Japanese markets is 3.43 points less than in the Japanese market,
taking into account the 2019 OECD's real GDP forecast announced. The reason for
the bargain is due to the difference between S&P500 's PER of 16.4 and the
Nikkei average adopted stock price PER 12.3 and Japan-US interest rate
difference, GDP growth difference. This is because the difference in GDP growth
between Japan and the US in 2019 is 3.4% more than the OECD forecast (Japan
will downgrade or US will be revised upward) against the current Nikkei average
price, or it can be interpreted that the Japanese-U.S. Market will be in
equilibrium, because the expected PER of the Nikkei average hires will be
around 21.4(the results for the current term will be revised downwards or the
Nikkei average will be around 36710 yen) . Because it is so, the Japanese
market is cheap about 15520 yen.
[Conditions for Nikkei average rise]
In the future, the following assumptions
are necessary for the Nikkei average to rise further.
① Rising US market
② UP of expected profit increase rate for
the current term more than before
③ Expansion of the interest rate
differential between Japan and the US and further depreciation of the yen
④ Upward revision of Japan's 2019 GDP
estimate (now +1.21%) by OECD
⑤ Foreign investors over-buying
Looking at recent movements
① Last week's NYDow weekly foot was nregative.
The daily bar is under the 200 day line, and it is under the cloud of the ichimoku
table. Nasdaq weekly foot was negative. NASDAQ bar is under the 200-day line and
under the cloud of the ichimoku table. This week we will be paying attention to
Housing related indicators, Quarterly financial results announcement , ISM
Manufacturing Industry Index in October, Employment Statistics in October. I
would like to pay attention to whether NYDow can go back to the 200th day line.
② The estimated ROE of the Nikkei 225
hired stocks is expected to be 9.2% with the announcement of the fiscal year
ending April-June, improving 0.1 points compared to three months ago. In
addition, The profit growth rate for the current business forecast is -4.3%, 1.8
points better than three months ago.
③ Long-term interest rates in the US
declined and the interest rate differential between Japan and the US shrank
from 3.05 to 2.98%, and the exchange rate was a move toward a strong yen with
111 units from 112 units. .
④ The OECD's real GDP growth rate in 2019
in Japan and the US is expected to be + 1.2% in Japan and + 2.8% in the US, so
the Japanese market is worse by 1.6 points on this aspect.
⑤ the 3rd week of October is a over selling. there is a high
possibility that the 4th week of October
is a over selling, and this week we are forecasting to over selling.
last week ①,③,⑤ was a bearish
factor. It seems that ①,②,③,⑤ will be affected
this week.
[Technical viewpoint]
From the technical point of view of the
Japanese market, the 200_day discrepancy rate with NASDAQ is 0.9 points in the
medium to long term (about 190 yen when calculated by the Nikkei average),
which is less expensive. The
difference has changed less expensive compared to last week.
The Nikkei average is under the cloud of
the ichimoku table. The total deviation rate was -21.0%, and it has expanded to
the negative range compared to last week. The 200-day moving average line was -5.7%
and it has changed to the negative range. Since 3 elements are negative, the
"red light" is on for the medium term trend. The Nikkei average is under
the 25_day moving average line and the 9_day moving average line, "red light " is on for short-term
trends.
In the US market NY Dow is under the 200_day
line and under the 25_day line and the 9_day line. It is in the cloud of
ichimoku table. NASDAQ is under the 200_day average line and the 25_day average
line and the 9_day average line. It is under the cloud of the ichimoku table. In
the short term "red light" is on and in the medium term "red light"
is on.
[Outlook for this week]
Looking at the US market fundamentally,
concerns such as the US economic slowdown, sluggish crude oil prices, Financial
market turmoil accompanying credit crunch, global long-term interest rate
trends declined, Situation of North Korea, falling high-yield bond market, etc.
Concern is diminished. However, there are fears concerning the global economic
slowdown due to the US interest rate hikes, uncertainty of US politics, the
creditworthiness of the EU regional banks, Concerns over the economic slowdown
of emerging economies such as China and the global economic slowdown due to
trade war, geopolitical risks of the Middle East and Ukraine as risk factors It
exists.
Real estate prices in China are flat in
large cities, but the problems of nonperforming loans in China as a whole such
as excessive facilities have not been resolved. If you hurry up the process, it
will lead to a short-term market drop, and if you delay proceeding, there is
concern that the economic recession will be prolonged.
Also, the latest LIBOR interest rate is on
the upward trend, it continues to update the high price in the past five years,
which implies that global nonperforming debt continues to increase, and the
possibility of financial unrest is revealed .
On the other hand, as favorable material,
the possibility of moderate rate hike in the US, policy expectation of New
President Trump, setting of 2% inflation target by the BOJ, introduction of
negative interest rate and purchase of 80 trillion government bond · 6 trillion
yen ETF, In addition to monetary easing measures, clarification of the duration
of long-term interest rate manipulation and monetary relaxation. Negative
interest rates and purchase of government bonds are maintained for policy
interest rates by the ECB. However, the government bond purchase frame is
gradually reduced from April 2017 and is planned to end at the end of the year.
Looking at the technical aspect, the US
market is downward trend in the medium-term, and downward trend in the short
term. The Japanese market is downward trend in the medium-term, and downward trend
in the short term.
Analyzing the exchange market last week,
the long-term interest rate in the US declined, the long-term interest rate gap
between the US and Japan shrank, and the exchange rate in the week was stronger
yen movement. This week is estimated to be 113 yen range from the 111 yen
range.
Last week's Nikkei average fell short of
the expected range. The upper price is below the assumed line by about 710 yen,
and the lower price is lower than the supposed line by about 370 yen. This
week's Nikkei average is expected to move between Bollinger band -1 sigma
(currently around 22210 yen) and lower price Bollinger band -2 sigma -300 yen (currently
around 21000 yen).
